IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2210.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

This paper, written for the NBER Conference on the Changing Role of the United States in the World Economy, covers the capital account in the U.S. balance of payments. It first traces the history from 1946 to 1980, a period throughout which Americans were steadily building up a positive net foreign investment position. It subsequently describes the historic swing of the capital account in the 1980s toward massive borrowing from abroad. There are various factors, in addition to expected rates of return, that encourage or discourage international capital flows: transactions costs, government controls, taxes, default and other political risk and exchange risk. But the paper argues that the increase in real interest rates and other expected rates of return in the United States, relative to other countries, in the early 1980s was the major factor that began to attract large net capital inflows. It concludes that a large increase in the U.S. federal budget deficit, which was not offset by increased private saving, was the major factor behind the increase in real interest rates, and therefore behind the switch to borrowing from abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1987. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 2210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2210
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2210.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John F. Wilson, 1986. "The United States international asset and liability position: a comparison of flow of funds and Commerce department presentations," International Finance Discussion Papers 295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Martin S. Feldstein, 1986. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 355-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arvind Mahajan & Donald R Fraser, 1986. "Dollar Eurobond and U.S. Bond Pricing," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 17(2), pages 21-36, June.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1986. "Implications of the U.S. Net Capital Inflow," NBER Working Papers 1804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. K. Alec Chrystal, 1984. "International banking facilities," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Apr), pages 5-11.
    6. Martin Feldstein, 1986. "Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Checchi, 1992. "What are the Real Effects of Liberalizing International Capital Movements?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 83-125, February.
    2. Ronald MacDonald & Luca A Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect; The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 2001/038, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kaiser, Johannes & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "The damage from clean floats: From an anti-inflationary monetary policy," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 19/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    4. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniele Checchi, 1996. "Capital Controls And Conflict Of Interests," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 33-50, March.
    6. Deborah J. Danker & Peter Hooper, 1990. "International financial markets and the U.S. external imbalance," International Finance Discussion Papers 372, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January.
    8. Kim, Iljoong & Kim, Inbae, 2008. "Interest group pressure explanations for the yen-dollar exchange rate movements: Focusing on the 1980s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 364-382, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin S. Feldstein, 1986. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 355-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Manmohan S. Kumar & Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 10/184, International Monetary Fund.
    3. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Berezinskaya, Olga (Березинская, Ольга), 2016. "Investment break in the Russian economy: structural characteristics and turnaround perspectives [Инвестиционная Пауза В Экономике России: Структурные Характеристики И Перспективы Ее Преодоления]," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 30-45, June.
    5. Vittorio U. Grilli, 1988. "Fiscal Policies and the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate: 1870-1984," NBER Working Papers 2482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1992. "How little we know about deficit policy effects," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 16(Win), pages 2-11.
    7. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Debt for an Overdebted Country," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 95-118, June.
    8. Athanassakos, George & Schnabel, Jacques A., 1996. "Stockholder wealth effects of Eurobond financing: A Canadian perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 191-208.
    9. Lehment, Harmen, 1991. "Internationale Auswirkungen der deutschen Währungs-, Wirtschafts- und Sozialunion," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2005, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Martin Feldstein & Joosung Jun, 1987. "The Effects of Tax Rules on Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Some Preliminary Evidence from the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 101-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
    12. Chae-Deug Yi, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence on Real Exchange Rate and Current Account: Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 61-83.
    13. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Levine, Ross & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2015. "How firms use corporate bond markets under financial globalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 532-551.
    14. Éric Girardin, 1988. "Dépenses publiques anticipées et balance courante," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(5), pages 1061-1074.
    15. Miller, Darius P. & Puthenpurackal, John J., 2002. "The Costs, Wealth Effects, and Determinants of International Capital Raising: Evidence from Public Yankee Bonds," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 455-485, October.
    16. Martin Feldstein & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Tax Incentives and Inflation: A Surprising Lesson From The 1983-84 Recovery," NBER Working Papers 2819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Thomas Laubach, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-30.
    18. Darius P. Miller & John J. Puthenpurackal, 2001. "The Costs, Wealth Effects, and Determinants of International Capital Raising: Evidence from Public Yankee Bonds," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 445, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    20. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994. "The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy During the Gold Standard PeriodEvidence from the United States and Great Britain," NBER Working Papers 4809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.