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Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter

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Abstract

Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions for unemployment and inflation can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinear Phillips curve before numerically examining some of the key nonlinearities featured in the recent literature.

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  • Brent Bundick & Isabel Cairó & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2025. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter," Working Paper Series 2025-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:101697
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2025-17
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    1. Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, David & Meyer, Steve, 2017. "Asymmetric monetary policy and the effective lower bound," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 441-451.
    2. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    3. Elsby, Michael W.L., 2009. "Evaluating the economic significance of downward nominal wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 154-169, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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