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Is tighter fiscal policy expansionary under fiscal dominance? Hypercrowding out in Latin America

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  • William C. Gruben
  • John H. Welch

Abstract

We test for hypercrowding out as a signal of market concerns over fiscal dominance in five Latin American countries. Hypercrowding out occurs when fiscally dominated governments’ domestic credit demands are perceived as so intrusive to a nation’s financial system that a move towards fiscal surplus lowers interest rates and increases growth. We sample five Latin American countries to test for these relationships. Judged by the results of vector error correction models, three nations test clearly positive, suggesting market concern despite their recent efforts towards fiscal balance.

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  • William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2005. "Is tighter fiscal policy expansionary under fiscal dominance? Hypercrowding out in Latin America," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0205, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddcl:0205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2002. "A Brazilian Debt-Crisis," NBER Working Papers 9160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    4. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    5. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 1-7.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
    8. Welch, John H. & Braga, Carlos Alberto Primo & de Tarso, Paulo & de Andre, Afonso, 1987. "Brazilian public sector disequilibrium," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1045-1052, August.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    10. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, April.
    12. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Hugo Rodriguez Gonzales, 2005. "Interacción de la política fiscal con la política monetaria en el MERCOSUR y países asociados," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 8(1), pages 49-97, December.

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