IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2022.27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Maria D'Arcangelo

    (OECD, Economics Department)

  • Marzio Galeotti

    (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on cross-country investments. To avoid carbon leakage, the scheme allocates a number of free allowances to firms at risk of relocating investments in areas outside the EU ETS. To study this problem, we employ a model of the firm’s investment decision in conjunction with novel firm-level data. In contrast with most previous literature, we stress the importance of firms’ heterogeneity in the analysis and leverage it. We derive conditions for the firm’s optimal emissions to construct a measure of investment sensitivity to carbon pricing from observed pollution data. This allows to identify the effect of the EU ETS on international investments by comparing the expected profits from investing in several different countries. We find that investments react to carbon pricing and that the effect is stronger for more polluting investments. However, the aggregate amount of diverted investments is small. We moreover show that the lost investments do not justify, alone, the generous compensations scheme aimed at retaining investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Maria D'Arcangelo & Marzio Galeotti, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," Working Papers 2022.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2022.27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2022-027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simone Borghesi & Chiara Franco & Giovanni Marin, 2020. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment Patterns of Italian Firms in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 219-256, January.
    2. Petrick, Sebastian & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms," Kiel Working Papers 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2002. "Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 103-116, May.
    4. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
    5. James B. Bushnell & Howard Chong & Erin T. Mansur, 2013. "Profiting from Regulation: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 78-106, November.
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "The Social Cost of Carbon," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 419-443, October.
    7. Dechezlepretre, Antoine & Sato, Misato, 2017. "The impacts of environmental regulations on competitiveness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 77700, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Efficiency, productivity and environmental policy: A case study of power generation in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1557-1568.
    9. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2018. "Measuring the Bias of Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1027-1084.
    10. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    11. List, John A. & Co, Catherine Y., 2000. "The Effects of Environmental Regulations on Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 104-115, March.
    13. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 273-322.
    14. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
    16. Eva Lyubich & Joseph Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 136-142, May.
    17. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    18. Meredith Fowlie & Mar Reguant, 2018. "Challenges in the Measurement of Leakage Risk," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 124-129, May.
    19. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Mu?ls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry Compensation under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2482-2508, August.
    20. Cludius, Johanna & de Bruyn, Sander & Schumacher, Katja & Vergeer, Robert, 2020. "Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS - an analysis for six industry sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2015. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 565-595.
    22. José de Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2011. "Does the Single Currency Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 553-578, September.
    23. D’Arcangelo, Filippo Maria & Pavan, Giulia & Calligaris, Sara, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," FEEM Working Papers 324170, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    24. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    25. Yuquing Xing & Charles Kolstad, 2002. "Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investment?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
    26. Florens Flues & Kurt van Dender, 2017. "Permit allocation rules and investment incentives in emissions trading systems," OECD Taxation Working Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
    27. Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 78-88.
    28. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Giulia Pavan & Sara Calligaris, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 2022.24, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    29. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    30. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    31. McGrattan, Ellen R. & Prescott, Edward C., 2009. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2454-2476, November.
    32. Raphael Calel & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2016. "Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 173-191, March.
    33. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    34. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-147.
    35. Tim Jeppesen & John A. List & Henk Folmer, 2002. "Environmental Regulations and New Plant Location Decisions: Evidence from a Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 19-49, February.
    36. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    37. Daniel McFadden, 1975. "The Revealed Preferences of a Government Bureaucracy: Theory," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(2), pages 401-416, Autumn.
    38. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    39. Veith, Stefan & Werner, Jörg R. & Zimmermann, Jochen, 2009. "Capital market response to emission rights returns: Evidence from the European power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 605-613, July.
    40. Ariel T. Burstein & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2009. "Foreign Know-How, Firm Control, and the Income of Developing Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 149-195.
    41. Eva Lyubich & Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," Working Papers 18-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    42. A. Denny Ellerman & Claudio Marcantonini & Aleksandar Zaklan, 2016. "The European Union Emissions Trading System: Ten Years and Counting," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 89-107.
    43. List, John A. & McHone, W. Warren & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Effects of environmental regulation on foreign and domestic plant births: is there a home field advantage?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 303-326, September.
    44. Adam B. Jaffe et al., 1995. "Environmental Regulation and the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 132-163, March.
    45. Ulrich Wagner & Christopher Timmins, 2009. "Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 231-256, June.
    46. Wolfgang Keller & Arik Levinson, 2002. "Pollution Abatement Costs and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 691-703, November.
    47. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    48. Jared C. Carbone & Nicholas Rivers, 2017. "The Impacts of Unilateral Climate Policy on Competitiveness: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Models," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 24-42.
    49. Stefano F. Verde, 2020. "The Impact Of The Eu Emissions Trading System On Competitiveness And Carbon Leakage: The Econometric Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 320-343, April.
    50. Nicola Commins & Seán Lyons & Marc Schiffbauer & Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "Climate Policy & Corporate Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 51-68.
    51. Eva Lyubich & Joseph Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 136-142, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D'Arcangelo, Maria Filippo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," FEEM Working Papers 327158, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    3. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Trinks, Arjan & Hille, Erik, 2023. "Carbon Costs and Industrial Firm Performance: Evidence from International Microdata," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277705, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Alessia Camplomi & Harald Fadinger & Chiara Forlati & Sabine Stillger & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2024. "Designing Effective Carbon Border Adjustment with Minimal Information Requirements. Theory and Empirics," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_495v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    6. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    7. repec:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_495 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-147.
    9. Joltreau, Eugénie & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2016. "Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Themann, Michael & Koch, Nicolas, 2021. "Catching up and falling behind: Cross-country evidence on the impact of the EU ETS on firm productivity," Ruhr Economic Papers 904, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Koch, Nicolas & Themann, Michael, 2022. "Catching up and falling behind: Cross-country evidence on the impact of the EU ETS on firm productivity," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Hafele, Jakob & Kuhls, Sonia, 2022. "Trade-off or tension: Can carbon be priced without risking economic competitiveness?," ZOE Discussion Papers 9, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    13. Cludius, Johanna & de Bruyn, Sander & Schumacher, Katja & Vergeer, Robert, 2020. "Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS - an analysis for six industry sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. aus dem Moore, Nils & Großkurth, Philipp & Themann, Michael, 2017. "Multinational corporations and the EU emissions trading system: Asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization?," Ruhr Economic Papers 719, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Ben Kheder, Sonia & Zugravu, Natalia, 2012. "Environmental regulation and French firms location abroad: An economic geography model in an international comparative study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-61.
    16. Schaufele, Brandon, 2019. "Demand Shocks Change the Excess Burden From Carbon Taxes," MPRA Paper 92132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2023. "The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 435-469, July.
    18. Saussay, Aurélien & Zugravu-Soilita, Natalia, 2023. "International production chains and the pollution offshoring hypothesis: An empirical investigation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Damien Dussaux & Francesco Vona & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2023. "Imported carbon emissions: Evidence from French manufacturing companies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 593-621, May.
    20. Sadayuki, Taisuke & Arimura, Toshi H., 2021. "Do regional emission trading schemes lead to carbon leakage within firms? Evidence from Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    21. Kuusi, Tero & Wang, Maria, 2022. "Trade Flows, Carbon Leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System," ETLA Working Papers 94, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emission trading; carbon leakage; investment location; EU ETS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2022.27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.