IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Convergence Patterns in the World Economy: Exploring the Non-Linearity Hypothesis

  • Artelaris, Panagiotis
  • Arvanitidis, Paschalis
  • Petrakos, George

The objective of this paper is to question the conventional convergence literature, which bases its findings on the use of linear regression models. With the use of quadratic WLS regression analysis we show that a number of indicators of economic performance follow a pattern of change that is in essence non-linear. Our results indicate the formation of two clubs at the world scale: A convergence club that includes countries with a low to mediumhigh level of development and a divergence club including countries with a medium-high to very high levels of development. After a critical threshold the forces of divergence at the world scale dominate and the most dynamic countries eventually grow faster. Undoubtedly, the formation of a diverging leaders club and a further increase in world level development gap has serious implications for theory and policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Sarah Burns)

File Function: 2008
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number DYNREG32.

in new window

Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:dynreg32
Contact details of provider: Postal: Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Phone: (353-1) 863 2000
Fax: (353-1) 863 2100
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1997. "Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics," Working Paper Series 492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Jun 1998.
  3. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, 03.
  4. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  7. Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March.
  8. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  9. Michael Lee & Ritchard Longmire & Laszlo Matyas & Mark Harris, 1998. "Growth convergence: some panel data evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 907-912.
  10. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
  11. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  12. Button, Kenneth J & Pentecost, Eric J, 1995. "Testing for Convergence of the EU Regional Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 664-71, October.
  13. R. Paci, 1996. "More similar and less equal. Economic growth in the European regions," Working Paper CRENoS 199609, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  14. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Between development and social policies: the impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions," European Economy Group Working Papers 28, European Economy Group.
  15. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  16. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  17. A. Di Liberto & J. Symons, 1999. "Some Econometric Issues In Convergence Regressions," Working Paper CRENoS 199904, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  18. Ron Martin, 2000. "Emu Versus The Regions? Regional Convergence And Divergence In Euroland," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp179, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
  19. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  20. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  21. de la Fuente, Angel, 1995. "Catch-up, Growth and Convergence in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 1274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  23. Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "The pitfalls of convergence analysis: is the income gap really widening?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 355-357.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:dynreg32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.