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Convergence Patterns in the World Economy: Exploring the Non-Linearity Hypothesis

  • Artelaris, Panagiotis
  • Arvanitidis, Paschalis
  • Petrakos, George

The objective of this paper is to question the conventional convergence literature, which bases its findings on the use of linear regression models. With the use of quadratic WLS regression analysis we show that a number of indicators of economic performance follow a pattern of change that is in essence non-linear. Our results indicate the formation of two clubs at the world scale: A convergence club that includes countries with a low to mediumhigh level of development and a divergence club including countries with a medium-high to very high levels of development. After a critical threshold the forces of divergence at the world scale dominate and the most dynamic countries eventually grow faster. Undoubtedly, the formation of a diverging leaders club and a further increase in world level development gap has serious implications for theory and policy.

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Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number dynreg32.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:dynreg32
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  1. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  2. Damien NEVEN & Claudine GOUYETTE, 1993. "Regional Convergence in the European Comunity," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9311, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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  5. de la Fuente, Angel, 1995. "Catch-up, Growth and Convergence in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 1274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March.
  8. Lee, M. & Longmire, R. & Matyas, L. & Harris, M., 1996. "Growth Convergence: Some Panel Data Evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  16. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
  18. Andres RodrIguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi†, 2004. "Between Development and Social Policies: The Impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 97-113.
  19. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  21. Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "The pitfalls of convergence analysis: is the income gap really widening?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 355-357.
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