Convergence patterns in the world economy: exploring the nonlinearity hypothesis
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate convergence or divergence trends at global scale. Design/methodology/approach – The paper questions the methodology and findings of the conventional convergence literature using linear OLS models. It introduces polynomial (quadratic) weighted least square (WLS) regression analysis to explore whether a number of economic performance indicators follow a non-linear pattern of change. Findings – The results indicate the formation of two groups in the world: a convergence one, including countries with low to medium-high development levels, and a divergence one including countries with medium-high to very high development levels. Research limitations/implications – Data availability after 1990 (for the composite indicators). Practical implications – The findings shed light on important issues, such as the decrease of economic disparities between countries, the prospects for global economic convergence, and the development of a more equal world. Apart from obvious policy implication such findings are also of theoretical significance, providing a basis to check (indirectly) the validity of alternative growth theories. Originality/value – This is the first paper (to the authors' knowledge) that explores world convergence/divergence employing quadratic WLS regression analysis with a number of economic indicators. WLS regressions enable the removal of the impact of country size on results, whereas non-linear modelling allows the possibility of multiple equilibria and different development trajectories to be taken into account. Finally, the employment of various economic-performance indicators (simple and composite) works as a cross-check of validity for the results provided.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jes.htm Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de la Fuente, Angel, 1995.
"Catch-up, Growth and Convergence in the OECD,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
- Michael Lee & Ritchard Longmire & Laszlo Matyas & Mark Harris, 1998.
"Growth convergence: some panel data evidence,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 907-912.
- Lee, M. & Longmire, R. & Matyas, L. & Harris, M., 1996. "Growth Convergence: Some Panel Data Evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- A. Di Liberto & J. Symons, 1999.
"Some Econometric Issues In Convergence Regressions,"
Working Paper CRENoS
199904, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Adriana Di Liberto & James Symons, 2003. "Some Econometric Issues in Convergence Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 293-307, 06.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I Just Ran Four Million Regressions,"
NBER Working Papers
6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Danny Quah, 1992.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1997.
"Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics,"
Working Paper Series
492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Jun 1998.
- Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
- Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003.
"Between development and social policies: the impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions,"
European Economy Group Working Papers
28, European Economy Group.
- Andres RodrIguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi†, 2004. "Between Development and Social Policies: The Impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 97-113.
- Damien NEVEN & Claudine GOUYETTE, 1993.
"Regional Convergence in the European Comunity,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9311, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- R. Paci, 1996.
"More similar and less equal. Economic growth in the European regions,"
Working Paper CRENoS
199609, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Raffaele Paci, 1997. "More similar and less equal: Economic growth in the European regions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(4), pages 609-634, December.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995.
"The classical approach to convergence analysis,"
Economics Working Papers
117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Button, Kenneth J & Pentecost, Eric J, 1995. "Testing for Convergence of the EU Regional Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 664-71, October.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
- Ron Martin, 2001.
"EMU versus the regions? Regional convergence and divergence in Euroland,"
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-80, January.
- Ron Martin, 2000. "Emu Versus The Regions? Regional Convergence And Divergence In Euroland," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp179, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March.
- Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "The pitfalls of convergence analysis: is the income gap really widening?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 355-357.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:3:p:236-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.