Convergence patterns in the world economy: exploring the nonlinearity hypothesis
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate convergence or divergence trends at global scale. Design/methodology/approach – The paper questions the methodology and findings of the conventional convergence literature using linear OLS models. It introduces polynomial (quadratic) weighted least square (WLS) regression analysis to explore whether a number of economic performance indicators follow a non-linear pattern of change. Findings – The results indicate the formation of two groups in the world: a convergence one, including countries with low to medium-high development levels, and a divergence one including countries with medium-high to very high development levels. Research limitations/implications – Data availability after 1990 (for the composite indicators). Practical implications – The findings shed light on important issues, such as the decrease of economic disparities between countries, the prospects for global economic convergence, and the development of a more equal world. Apart from obvious policy implication such findings are also of theoretical significance, providing a basis to check (indirectly) the validity of alternative growth theories. Originality/value – This is the first paper (to the authors' knowledge) that explores world convergence/divergence employing quadratic WLS regression analysis with a number of economic indicators. WLS regressions enable the removal of the impact of country size on results, whereas non-linear modelling allows the possibility of multiple equilibria and different development trajectories to be taken into account. Finally, the employment of various economic-performance indicators (simple and composite) works as a cross-check of validity for the results provided.
Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jes.htm Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Damien NEVEN & Claudine GOUYETTE, 1993.
"Regional Convergence in the European Comunity,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9311, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I Just Ran Four Million Regressions,"
NBER Working Papers
6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992.
"A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- A. Di Liberto & J. Symons, 1999.
"Some Econometric Issues In Convergence Regressions,"
Working Paper CRENoS
199904, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Adriana Di Liberto & James Symons, 2003. "Some Econometric Issues in Convergence Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 293-307, 06.
- Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
- Ron Martin, 2001.
"EMU versus the regions? Regional convergence and divergence in Euroland,"
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-80, January.
- Ron Martin, 2000. "Emu Versus The Regions? Regional Convergence And Divergence In Euroland," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp179, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995.
"The classical approach to convergence analysis,"
Economics Working Papers
117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Raffaele Paci, 1997.
"More similar and less equal: Economic growth in the European regions,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 609-634, December.
- R. Paci, 1996. "More similar and less equal. Economic growth in the European regions," Working Paper CRENoS 199609, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- de la Fuente, A., 1995.
"Catch-up, Growth and Convergence in the OECD,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
314.95, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- Michael Lee & Ritchard Longmire & Laszlo Matyas & Mark Harris, 1998.
"Growth convergence: some panel data evidence,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 907-912.
- Lee, M. & Longmire, R. & Matyas, L. & Harris, M., 1996. "Growth Convergence: Some Panel Data Evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Andres RodrIguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi†, 2004.
"Between Development and Social Policies: The Impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 97-113.
- Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Between development and social policies: the impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions," European Economy Group Working Papers 28, European Economy Group.
- Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999.
"Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
- Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1997. "Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics," Working Paper Series 492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Jun 1998.
- Button, Kenneth J & Pentecost, Eric J, 1995. "Testing for Convergence of the EU Regional Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 664-71, October.
- Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "The pitfalls of convergence analysis: is the income gap really widening?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 355-357.
- Danny Quah, 1992.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
- Strazicich, Mark C. & Lee, Junsoo & Day, Edward, 2004. "Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-145, March.
- Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:3:p:236-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.