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Economic development and migration drivers toward the European Union: evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (Universitat Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (University of Valencia, INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II. Avenida dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain.)

  • Iryna Viazmikina

    (University Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of international migration to the European Union using bilateral migration stocks from 99 origin countries to 19 EU destinations over the period 2000–2017. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging within a high-dimensional gravity framework, jointly evaluating economic, demographic, institutional, trade, policy, and proximity-based determinants under model uncertainty. We account for the multilateral nature of migration decisions by combining high-dimensional fixed effects with common correlated effects while preserving identification. Our results identify a stable core of migration drivers, together with systematic heterogeneity across origin countries by income level. These findings offer new evidence-based guidance for EU migration and integration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit & Iryna Viazmikina, 2026. "Economic development and migration drivers toward the European Union: evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging," Working Papers 2611, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2611
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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