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Economic development and migration drivers toward the European Union: evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (Universitat Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (University of Valencia, INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II. Avenida dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain.)

  • Iryna Viazmikina

    (University Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of international migration to the European Union using bilateral migration stocks from 99 origin countries to 19 EU destinations over the period 2000–2017. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging within a high-dimensional gravity framework, jointly evaluating economic, demographic, institutional, trade, policy, and proximity-based determinants under model uncertainty. We account for the multilateral nature of migration decisions by combining high-dimensional fixed effects with common correlated effects while preserving identification. Our results identify a stable core of migration drivers, together with systematic heterogeneity across origin countries by income level. These findings offer new evidence-based guidance for EU migration and integration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit & Iryna Viazmikina, 2026. "Economic development and migration drivers toward the European Union: evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging," Working Papers 2611, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2611
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Akira Soto Nishimura & Mathias Czaika, 2024. "Exploring Migration Determinants: a Meta-Analysis of Migration Drivers and Estimates," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 621-643, June.
    4. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    6. repec:boc:pcon20:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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