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The Price of Wine

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  • Dimson, Elroy

  • Rousseau, Peter L.

  • Spaenjers, Christophe

Abstract

We examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the performance of wine as a long-term investment, using a unique historical database for five long-established Bordeaux wines that we construct from auction and dealer prices. We estimate the life-cycle price patterns with a regression model that avoids multicollinearity between age, vintage year, and time by replacing the vintage effects with annual data on production yields and weather quality. In line with the predictions of an illustrative model, we observe the highest rates of appreciation for young high-quality wines that are still maturing. The findings suggest that the non-financial “psychic return” to holding wines that are substantially beyond maturity is at least 1%. Using an arithmetic repeat-sales regression, we estimate an annualized return to wine investments (net of insurance and storage costs) of 4.1%, in real GBP terms, between 1900 and 2012. Wine underperforms equities over this period, but outperforms government bonds, art, and stamps. Wine and equity returns are positively correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimson, Elroy & Rousseau, Peter L. & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2013. "The Price of Wine," HEC Research Papers Series 1019, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1019
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    2. Ambre Nicolle & Lukasz Grzybowski & Christine Zulehner, 2018. "Impact Of Competition, Investment, And Regulation On Prices Of Mobile Services: Evidence From France," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1322-1345, April.
    3. Mert Hakan Hekimoğlu & Burak Kazaz, 2020. "Analytics for Wine Futures: Realistic Prices," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2096-2120, September.
    4. Dobrynskaya, Victoria & Kishilova, Julia, 2022. "Lego: The Toy Of Smart Investors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Lennon, Conor & Shohfi, Tom, 2021. "Unbridled spirit: Illicit markets for bourbon whiskey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1025-1045.
    6. Czupryna Marcin & Oleksy Paweł, 2018. "The Effect of an Electronic Exchange on Prices and Return Volatility in the Fine Wine Market," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 22-35, December.
    7. Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Jiao, Linda, 2018. "The long-term financial drivers of fine wine prices: The role of emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 347-361.
    8. Savva Shanaev & Nikita Shimkus & Binam Ghimire & Satish Sharma, 2020. "Children’s toy or grown-ups’ gamble? LEGO sets as an alternative investment," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(5), pages 577-620, November.
    9. Samitas, Aristeidis & Papathanasiou, Spyros & Koutsokostas, Drosos & Kampouris, Elias, 2022. "Volatility spillovers between fine wine and major global markets during COVID-19: A portfolio hedging strategy for investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 629-642.
    10. Li, Yuexin & Ma, X. & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "Pricing Art and the Art of Pricing : On Returns and Risk in Art Auction Markets," Discussion Paper 2021-018, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    12. Carole Maurel & Françoise Pierrot & Foued Cheriet & Paul Amadieu, 2019. "Inventories in the wine industry: From sector and financial determinants to strategic behaviors," Post-Print hal-02789122, HAL.
    13. Kevin Hoefman & Aaron Bramson & Koen Schoors & Jan Ryckebusch, 2018. "The impact of functional and social value on the price of goods," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    14. Fabien Candau & Florent Deisting & Julie Schlick, 2017. "How Income and Crowding Effects Influence the World Market for French Wines," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 963-977, May.
    15. Laurs, Dries & Renneboog, Luc, 2019. "My kingdom for a horse (or a classic car)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 184-207.
    16. Eric Le Fur & Jean-François Outreville, 2019. "Fine wine returns: a review of the literature," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 196-214, May.
    17. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Analyzing the risks of an illiquid and global asset: The case of fine wine," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-25.
    18. Correia, Leonida & Rebelo, João & Caldas, José, 2015. "Production and Trade of Port Wine: Temporal Dynamics and Pricing," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), pages 1-15.
    19. Fur, Eric Le, 2021. "Fine Wines in a Diversified Portfolio of Collectibles," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Masset, Philippe & Maurer, Frantz, 2021. "Mitigating downside risk of portfolio diversification: Wine versus other tangible assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    21. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani-Rad & Jean-Philippe Weisskopf, 2019. "Behavioural heterogeneity in wine investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3236-3255, June.
    22. Jean Marie Cardebat & Philippe Masset & Jean-Philippe Weisskopf, 2020. "Covid-19 and fine wines: the ‘perfect blend’ for a severe headache?," Working Papers hal-03258235, HAL.
    23. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2016. "Red obsession: The ascent of fine wine in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-225.
    24. Bargain, Olivier & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Vignolles, Alexandra, 2016. "Crowdfunding in Wine," Working Papers 234638, American Association of Wine Economists.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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