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Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wines

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  • Ashenfelter, Orley

Abstract

Bordeaux wines have been made in much the same way for centuries. This article shows that the variability in the quality and prices of Bordeaux vintages is predicted by the weather that created the grapes. The price equation provides a measure of the real rate of return to holding wines (about 2–3% per annum) and implies far greater variability in the early or ‘en primeur’ wine prices than is observed. The analysis provides a useful basis for assessing market inefficiency, the effect of climate change on the wine industry and the role of expert opinion in determining wine prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashenfelter, Orley, 2007. "Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wines," Working Papers 37297, American Association of Wine Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37297
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37297
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2006. "Spatial Variations in Weather Conditions and Wine Prices in Bordeaux," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 114-124, October.
    2. Ali, Héla Hadj & Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2010. "The Impact of Gurus: Parker Grades and en primeur Wine Prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 22-39, April.
    3. Jones, Gregory V. & Storchmann, Karl-Heinz, 2001. "Wine market prices and investment under uncertainty: an econometric model for Bordeaux Crus Classes," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 115-133, November.
    4. Danielle Wood & Kym Anderson, 2019. "What Determines the Future Value of an Icon Wine? New Evidence from Australia," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 11, pages 255-282, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. John W. Haeger & Karl Storchmann, 2006. "Prices of American Pinot Noir wines: climate, craftsmanship, critics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 67-78, July.
    6. R.P. Byron & O. Ashenfelter, 1995. "Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(1), pages 40-53, March.
    7. Byron, R P & Ashenfelter, Orley, 1995. "Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 40-53, March.
    8. Combris, Pierre & Lecocq, Sebastien & Visser, Michael, 1997. "Estimation for a Hedonic Price Equation for Bordeaux Wine: Does Quality Matter?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 390-402, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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