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Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte D’Albis

    () (Paris School of Economics - CNRS)

  • Elodie Djemai

    () (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

Abstract

Cet article utilise les Enquêtes Logement réalisées de 1973 à 2013 et analyse les effets démographiques sur la dynamique du marché de l’immobilier neuf en France métropolitaine, ainsi qu’en Ile-de-France, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, dans les régions littorales et dans les régions enclavées. Le calcul des fréquences d’acquisition d’un logement neuf au titre de la résidence principale par âge permet de souligner les effets comportementaux et les effets démographiques (en distinguant taille de la population et structure par âge) sur la dynamique du marché. L’article analyse l’impact du vieillissement de la population et propose des projections relatives aux besoins de construction d’ici 2060. Alors que l’évolution de taille de la population a été favorable aux acquisitions sur l’ensemble de la période étudiée, la structure par âge devient défavorable dès le début des années 1990. La décomposition révèle des effets très spécifiques aux régions étudiées._ENGLISH_ Using household survey data from the “Enquêtes Logement” collected from 1973 to 2013, this article studies the effects of demography on the new-build housing market dynamics in France, as well as in the Paris Region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, and in coastal regions and in landlocked regions. After computing how frequently individuals buy a new-build house for their primary residence by age, the effects of behavioral changes and demographic changes (population size and age structure) on the market dynamics are evaluated. The article analyzes the impact of population ageing and provides projections on the needs for home construction by 2060. Results suggest that while the changes in population size are in favor of acquisitions all the period long, the age structure becomes an adverse factor from the beginning of the nineties onwards. The decomposition shows that these effects are region-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte D’Albis & Elodie Djemai, 2017. "Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf," Working Papers DT/2017/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201715
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    5. Luc Arrondel & Frédéric Savignac, 2010. "Housing and Portfolio Choices in France," Post-Print halshs-00754837, HAL.
    6. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    7. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2017. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 109-140.
    9. Hippolyte D'Albis & Ikpidi Badji, 2017. "Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France," Post-Print halshs-01524882, HAL.
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    1. repec:sae:inrsre:v:42:y:2019:i:2:p:147-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marché de l’immobilier neuf; Projections démographiques; Résidence principale; Vieillissement; New-build housing market; Demographic projections; Primary Residence; Ageing;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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