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Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Simon

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yasmine Essafi

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La coïncidence entre 1997 et 2007 d'un grand nombre de futurs retraités avec la très forte hausse des prix du résidentiel est-elle fortuite ? En se basant sur des éléments temporels et géographiques, complétés par un modèle de panel, cet article tend à confirmer l'existence d'une causalité démographique. La prise en compte de ces facteurs démographiques, en absolu et en structure, fait de plus apparaitre comme minimes les effets des taux, des revenus, de la construction et du divorce, sur les prix. Dans le contexte actuel de 'papy-boom', le modèle suggère une lente érosion des prix. Toutefois, une question se pose dès aujourd'hui, celle d'une concurrence intergénérationnelle. Alors que près de 75% des retraités sont propriétaires, l'orientation pro 'papy-boomers' de la politique du logement mérite d'être interrogée. Le parc résidentiel valant 6 300 milliards d'euros et ayant enregistré une plus-value de 3 700 milliards, on ne saurait le considérer comme un hors-bilan. Crise, déflation, austérité et 'papy-boom' ne seraient-ils pas des synonymes ?

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2015. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Working Papers halshs-01138074, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01138074
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01138074v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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