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Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte D’Albis

    (Paris School of Economics - CNRS)

  • Elodie Djemai

    () (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

Abstract

A partir des Enquêtes Logement réalisées par l’Insee de 1973 à 2006, cet article analyse les effets démographiques sur la dynamique du marché de l’immobilier neuf en France métropolitaine ainsi qu’en Ile de France et en région PACA. Le calcul des fréquences d’acquisition de logement neuf au titre de la résidence principale par âge permet de mettre en évidence les effets démographiques et effets comportementaux sur la dynamique du marché. Démêlant également les effets de la taille de la population des effets de la structure par âge, il analyse l’impact du vieillissement de la population et propose des projections relatives aux besoins de construction d’ici 2060. L’analyse souligne que les conditions démographiques ont été favorables aux acquisitions de 1972 à 1995 mais insuffisamment pour compenser l’effet des comportements. Alors que l’évolution de taille de la population a toujours été favorable aux acquisitions sur l’ensemble de la période étudiée, la structure par âge est devenue défavorable dès le début des années 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte D’Albis & Elodie Djemai, 2016. "Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf," Working Papers DT/2016/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201603
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    5. Luc Arrondel & Frédéric Savignac, 2010. "Housing and Portfolio Choices in France," Post-Print halshs-00754837, HAL.
    6. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    7. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2017. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 109-140.
    9. Hippolyte D'Albis & Ikpidi Badji, 2017. "Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France," Post-Print halshs-01524882, HAL.
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    1. repec:sae:inrsre:v:42:y:2019:i:2:p:147-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immobilier neuf; démographie; vieillissement; projections; France;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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