IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt201603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte D’Albis

    (Paris School of Economics - CNRS)

  • Elodie Djemai

    (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)

Abstract

A partir des Enquêtes Logement réalisées par l’Insee de 1973 à 2006, cet article analyse les effets démographiques sur la dynamique du marché de l’immobilier neuf en France métropolitaine ainsi qu’en Ile de France et en région PACA. Le calcul des fréquences d’acquisition de logement neuf au titre de la résidence principale par âge permet de mettre en évidence les effets démographiques et effets comportementaux sur la dynamique du marché. Démêlant également les effets de la taille de la population des effets de la structure par âge, il analyse l’impact du vieillissement de la population et propose des projections relatives aux besoins de construction d’ici 2060. L’analyse souligne que les conditions démographiques ont été favorables aux acquisitions de 1972 à 1995 mais insuffisamment pour compenser l’effet des comportements. Alors que l’évolution de taille de la population a toujours été favorable aux acquisitions sur l’ensemble de la période étudiée, la structure par âge est devenue défavorable dès le début des années 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte D’Albis & Elodie Djemai, 2016. "Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf," Working Papers DT/2016/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dial.ird.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2016-03-Evolutions-demographiques-et-marche-de-limmobilier-neuf.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Luc Arrondel & Frédéric Savignac, 2010. "Housing and Portfolio Choices in France," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754837, HAL.
    5. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    6. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    7. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    8. Olivier Bandt & Thomas Knetsch & Juan Peñalosa & Francesco Zollino (ed.), 2010. "Housing Markets in Europe," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-15340-2, January.
    9. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2017. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 109-140.
    11. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ikpidi Badji, 2017. "Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France," Post-Print halshs-01524882, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Badji, Ikpidi & El Mekkaoui, Najat & Navaux, Julien, 2020. "Private asset income in France: Is there a breakdown of intergenerational equity between 1979 and 2011?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    2. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    4. Lerbs, Oliver & Hiller, Norbert, 2015. "Aging and Urban House Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113136, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    6. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
    9. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    10. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    11. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2015. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Working Papers halshs-01138074, HAL.
    12. Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's Growth in Households and House Prices," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 502-511, December.
    13. Richard K. Green & Patric Hendershott, 1992. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 92-08, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    14. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    15. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.
    16. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    17. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Inflation and the price of real assets," Staff Report 423, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    19. John M. Quigley, 1999. "Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20.
    20. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immobilier neuf; démographie; vieillissement; projections; France;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Loic Le Pezennec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.