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Evolutions démographiques et marché de l'immobilier neuf

Author

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  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    () (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)

Abstract

Using household survey data from the "Enquêtes Logement" collected from 1973to 2013, this article studies the effects of demography on the new-build housing marketdynamics in France, as well as in the Paris Region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, and incoastal regions and in landlocked regions. After computing how frequently individuals buy a new-build house for their primary residence by age, the effects of behavioral changes and demographic changes (population size and age structure) on the market dynamics are evaluated. The article analyzes the impact of population ageing and provides projections on the needs for home construction by 2060. Results suggest that while the changes in population size are in favor of acquisitions all the period long, the age structure becomes an adverse factor from the beginning of the nineties onwards. The decomposition shows that these effects are region-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Elodie Djemaï, 2018. "Evolutions démographiques et marché de l'immobilier neuf," Post-Print hal-01707053, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01707053
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01707053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    2. Luc Arrondel & Frédéric Savignac, 2010. "Housing and Portfolio Choices in France," Post-Print halshs-00754837, HAL.
    3. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    4. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    5. Hippolyte D'Albis & Ikpidi Badji, 2017. "Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France," Post-Print halshs-01524882, HAL.
    6. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    7. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2017. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 109-140.
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    1. repec:sae:inrsre:v:42:y:2019:i:2:p:147-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; Primary Residence; Marché de l’immobilier neuf; Projections démographiques; Résidence principale; Vieillissement; New-build housing market; Demographic projections;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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