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La croissance est-elle pro-pauvres au Mali ?

  • Isabel Günther


    (University of Göttingen, Department of Economics)

  • Mohamed Ali Marouani



  • Marc Raffinot


    (DIAL, University Paris Dauphine,EURIsCO)

(english) Since the 1994 devaluation, growth has been quite strong in Mali (about 5% p.a. on average), but much weaker in terms of GDP per person (about 2.6% p.a.) due to a very high index of fecundity. Growth is still very unstable, due to a large share of agriculture in GDP and very sensitive to rainfall and other shocks (droughts, locusts, etc.). Following a surge after the devaluation, poverty incidence plummeted slightly. Extreme poverty decreased, and growth has been pro-poor to some extent in monetary terms. The analysis of social indicators shows that non-poor benefited more in terms of education, nutrition and health. The high degree of inequality is important for explaining the disappointing results in poverty reduction. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) gives priority to investment in education and health supply. In countries like Mali, the likely effect of such policies is questionable, at least in the short or medium run. We propose to focus on the dynamics of poverty alleviation. For promoting the equality of opportunities and poverty reduction, redistribution issues should be tackled, along with increasing the production of rainfall cereals, and a steady job creation in urban areas. _________________________________ (français) Depuis la dévaluation de 1994, la croissance au Mali se situe en moyenne à 5 % par an environ (soit la moitié en termes de revenu par tête du fait d’une fécondité qui reste extrêmement élevée et semble même continuer à progresser). La croissance se situe ainsi en dessus de son niveau de long terme, mais continue à dépendre des aléas qui frappent le secteur rural (sécheresses, invasions acridiennes, inondations). La réduction de la pauvreté est restée extrêmement modeste. La dévaluation a considérablement accru l’incidence de la pauvreté, et la relance de la croissance n’a pas réussi à la réduire sensiblement. L’extrême pauvreté en revanche semble avoir quelque peu diminué et la croissance a été légèrement pro-pauvres. En revanche, l’amélioration globale des indicateurs sociaux en termes d’éducation, de nutrition et de santé a surtout bénéficié aux non-pauvres. La forte inégalité des revenus au Mali est l’une des raisons de la faible élasticité de réduction de la pauvreté par rapport à la croissance. Les politiques de réduction de la pauvreté ont été axées jusqu’ici sur l’augmentation de l’offre de services sociaux (éducation, santé). Il n’est pas sûr que ceci puisse à court terme permettre une amélioration sensible du niveau de vie des pauvres. Pour accroître l’égalité des chances et réduire la pauvreté, il sera nécessaire de mettre en oeuvre certaines formes de redistribution, ainsi qu’un accroissement de la productivité dans les secteurs des céréales pluviales et de fortes créations d’emplois en ville.

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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2006/15.

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Length: 69 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200615
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