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How to prioritise policies for poverty reduction: Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam

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  • Klump, Rainer
  • Prüfer, Patricia

Abstract

The UN Millennium Development Goals have recognized poverty reduction as the main goal of global development policy. A comprehensive framework to evaluate the effectiveness of single policy measures and policy packages with respect to poverty reduction is still lacking, though. Policy evaluation is exposed to manifold uncertainties given the dependency of the preferred outcomes on a chosen policy, available information, and policy makers' preferences. We show that Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is most valuable in this context as it addresses the parameter and model uncertainty inherent in development policies. Using data for the 61 Vietnamese provinces we are able to ascertain the most important determinants of poverty from a large number of potential explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Klump, Rainer & Prüfer, Patricia, 2005. "How to prioritise policies for poverty reduction: Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 27, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty determinants; Vietnam; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA);

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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