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Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria

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  • Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Jiang Leiwen
  • Brian C. O´Neill

Abstract

Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Though non-economic factors have received less attention, recent research has found that demographic factors are important. While some studies have applied a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand, projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables such as numbers of people and/or households. In this paper, we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections of car use are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. For example, the highest projected car use - an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. (Keywords: household projections, car use demand, demographic composition)

Suggested Citation

  • Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz & Jiang Leiwen & Brian C. O´Neill, 2002. "Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-034
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-034
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    Cited by:

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    3. Zhao, Pengjun & Zhang, Yixue, 2018. "Travel behaviour and life course: Examining changes in car use after residential relocation in Beijing," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    4. Underwood, Anthony & Zahran, Sammy, 2015. "The carbon implications of declining household scale economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 182-190.
    5. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2010. "Age-Structure, Urbanization, and Climate Change in Developed Countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for Disaggregated Population and Consumption-Related Environmental Impacts," MPRA Paper 59579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhang, Yixue & Zhao, Pengjun & Lin, Jen-Jia, 2021. "Exploring shopping travel behavior of millennials in Beijing: Impacts of built environment, life stages, and subjective preferences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 49-60.
    8. Ana Escoto Castillo & Landy Sánchez Peña, 2017. "Diffusion of Electricity Consumption Practices in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    9. Stefan Schönfelder, 2010. "Teilbericht 4: Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Verkehrsnachfrage in den Regionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41129, February.
    10. Masanobu Kii, 2020. "Reductions in CO 2 Emissions from Passenger Cars under Demography and Technology Scenarios in Japan by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    11. Ding Weina & Marianna Gilli & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Francesco Nicolli, 2014. "Green inventions and greenhouse gas emission dynamics: A close examination of provincial Italian data," SEEDS Working Papers 3014, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2014.
    12. Liddle, Brantley, 2014. "Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: Evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses," MPRA Paper 61306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Brantley Liddle, 2003. "Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    16. Alexia Prskawetz & Jiang Leiwen & Brian C. O Neill, 2004. "Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 175-202.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austria;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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