IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vid/yearbk/v2y2004i1p175-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Jiang Leiwen
  • Brian C. O Neill

Abstract

Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialised countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Previous work has identified demographic factors as important influences on demand, in addition to economic factors. While some studies applied a detailed demographic composition to analyse past developments of transportation demand, or estimated parameters based on models that include demographic variables, projections for the future have never accounted for future compositional changes in the population. In this paper, we combine cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections to explore the sensitivity of projections of car use to the specific type of demographic disaggregation employed. We find that particular demographic characteristics of households can have important effects on aggregate demand through the combined effect of differences in demand across different types of households, and changes in the future composition of the population by household type. For example, the highest projected car use--an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046--is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. These findings suggest that the inclusion of demographic factors in transportation demand modelling should extend beyond their use in historical decompositions and as controls in model parameter estimation to explicit consideration of future demographic changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexia Prskawetz & Jiang Leiwen & Brian C. O Neill, 2004. "Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 175-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:175-202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.oeaw.ac.at/0xc1aa500d_0x00062023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greening, Lorna A & Jeng, Hann Tarn, 1994. "Lifecycle analysis of gasoline expenditure patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 217-228, July.
    2. Alexia Prskawetz & Andres Vikat & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt, 2003. "Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(5), pages 107-150.
    3. Greening, Lorna A. & Schipper, Lee & Davis, Robert E. & Bell, Stuart R., 1997. "Prediction of household levels of greenhouse-gas emissions from personal automotive transportation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 449-460.
    4. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Alexia Prskawetz & Andres Vikat & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt, 2002. "Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: results from the FFS," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-046, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2002. "Estimating individual driving distance by car and public transport use in Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 959-967.
    7. Alexia Prskawetz & Jiang Leiwen & Brian C. O Neill, 2004. "Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 175-202.
    8. Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika & Linden, Anna-Lisa, 1999. "Travel patterns and environmental effects now and in the future:: implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economic groups," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 405-417, September.
    9. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    10. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Urban density and climate change: a STIRPAT analysis using city-level data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 22-29.
    2. Zhao, Pengjun & Zhang, Yixue, 2018. "Travel behaviour and life course: Examining changes in car use after residential relocation in Beijing," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    3. Underwood, Anthony & Zahran, Sammy, 2015. "The carbon implications of declining household scale economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 182-190.
    4. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zhang, Yixue & Zhao, Pengjun & Lin, Jen-Jia, 2021. "Exploring shopping travel behavior of millennials in Beijing: Impacts of built environment, life stages, and subjective preferences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 49-60.
    6. Masanobu Kii, 2020. "Reductions in CO 2 Emissions from Passenger Cars under Demography and Technology Scenarios in Japan by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Liddle, Brantley, 2014. "Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: Evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses," MPRA Paper 61306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Brantley Liddle, 2003. "Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    10. Alexia Prskawetz & Jiang Leiwen & Brian C. O Neill, 2004. "Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 175-202.
    11. Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Bildungsstruktur der österreichischen Bevölkerung und Haushalte bis 2040," WIFO Working Papers 538, WIFO.
    12. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2010. "Age-Structure, Urbanization, and Climate Change in Developed Countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for Disaggregated Population and Consumption-Related Environmental Impacts," MPRA Paper 59579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ana Escoto Castillo & Landy Sánchez Peña, 2017. "Diffusion of Electricity Consumption Practices in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    14. Stefan Schönfelder, 2010. "Teilbericht 4: Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Verkehrsnachfrage in den Regionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41129, February.
    15. Ding Weina & Marianna Gilli & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Francesco Nicolli, 2014. "Green inventions and greenhouse gas emission dynamics: A close examination of provincial Italian data," SEEDS Working Papers 3014, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2014.
    16. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Asensio, Javier & Matas, Anna & Raymond, Jose-Luis, 2003. "Petrol expenditure and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 49-69, January.
    3. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    4. West, Sarah E., 2004. "Distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 735-757, March.
    5. Ana Escoto Castillo & Landy Sánchez Peña, 2017. "Diffusion of Electricity Consumption Practices in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    7. Elhorst, J. Paul & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2020. "Car traffic, habit persistence, cross-sectional dependence, and spatial heterogeneity: New insights using French departmental data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 614-632.
    8. Marina Di Giacomo & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2009. "Are "Flexible" Taxation Mechanisms Effective in Stabilizing Fuel Prices? An Evaluation Considering the Italian Fuel Markets," Working papers 07, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    9. Gillingham, Kenneth & Munk-Nielsen, Anders, 2019. "A tale of two tails: Commuting and the fuel price response in driving," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 27-40.
    10. Menz, Tobias & Welsch, Heinz, 2012. "Population aging and carbon emissions in OECD countries: Accounting for life-cycle and cohort effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 842-849.
    11. Liu, Weiwei, 2014. "Modeling gasoline demand in the United States: A flexible semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 244-253.
    12. Xavier Labandeira & José M. Labeaga & Miguel Rodríguez, "undated". "Microsimulating the Effects of Household Energy Price Changes in Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 196, FEDEA.
    13. Haotian Chen & Xibin Zhang, 2014. "Bayesian Estimation for Partially Linear Models with an Application to Household Gasoline Consumption," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 28/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Leonid Galchynskyi, 2020. "Estimation of the price elasticity of petroleum products’ consumption in Ukraine," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 315-339, June.
    15. Chen, Haotian & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2017. "A Bayesian sampling approach to measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand using a constrained partially linear model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 346-354.
    16. Eakins, John, 2016. "An application of the double hurdle model to petrol and diesel household expenditures in Ireland," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-93.
    17. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Setyani Dwi Lestari & Amir Indrabudiman & Wuri Septi Handayani & Teguh Sugiarto, 2019. "Estimation with Macroeconomic Variables in Long-Term Elasticity of Gasoline Consumption," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 326-329.
    19. Mattioli, Giulio & Wadud, Zia & Lucas, Karen, 2018. "Vulnerability to fuel price increases in the UK: A household level analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 227-242.
    20. Mohcine Bakhat & José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral Lñpez, 2013. "Economic Crisis and Elasticities of Car Fuels: Evidence for Spain," Working Papers fa15-2013, Economics for Energy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:175-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernhard Rengs (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.