IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/2026016.html

In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Jing-Rong Zeng

    (Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

Can international peacekeeping produce durable peace? I study United Nations peacekeeping deployments across Africa from 1994 to 2020 using a geocoded panel of peacekeeper locations and conflict events. Because local deployment is non-absorbing and varies over time, I use difference-in-differences estimators that accommodate heterogeneous treatment effects and changes in treatment status. Peacekeeper deployment is followed by a large and persistent decline in the probability of local conflict. By contrast, conflict-related fatalities decline initially but increase at longer horizons, revealing a divergence between the incidence and severity of violence. The longer-run increase in fatalities is concentrated in state-based conflict, while the initial decline is more pronounced for one-sided violence. I find limited evidence of sustained improvements in nighttime lights. Complementary evidence from MONUSCO’s 2013 offensive mandate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo shows lower total and non-civilian-targeted fatalities in locations with peacekeeper bases. The findings show that the effects of peacekeeping differ across dimensions of violence and evolve substantially over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing-Rong Zeng, 2026. "In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2026016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2026016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginie LEBLANC (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.