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Medication Against Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Berlanda, Andrea
  • Cervellati, Matteo
  • Esposito, Elena
  • Rohner, Dominic
  • Sunde, Uwe

Abstract

This paper investigates the consequences of the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic on social violence and conflict in Africa. Identification is based on exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Counterfactual simulations illustrate the quantitative relevance of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlanda, Andrea & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Rohner, Dominic & Sunde, Uwe, 2022. "Medication Against Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 17125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17125
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lax-Martinez, Gema & Rohner, Dominic & Saia, Alessandro, 2022. "Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 361-371.
    3. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
    4. Francesco Amodio & Leonardo Baccini & Giorgio Chiovelli & Michele Di Maio, 2024. "Trade liberalization, economic activity and political violence in the Global South: evidence from PTAs," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 275-322.
    5. De Luca, Giacomo Davide & Lin, Xi, 2024. "The role of health and health systems in promoting social capital, political participation and peace: A narrative review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Federico Maggio & Dominic Rohner & Alessandro Saia, 2024. "The Democracy Dividend: ˗How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health Outcomes˗," CESifo Working Paper Series 11307, CESifo.
    7. Shen, Xiuheng & Sun, Yucheng & Zhou, Xianbo, 2025. "The political legacy of disease control: Evidence from a polio vaccination campaign in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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