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Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Premand
  • Dominic Rohner

Abstract

Conflict undermines development, while adverse economic shocks, in turn, can increase conflict risk. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could attenuate conflict risk by raising poor households' opportunity costs. However, cash transfers may also trigger looting, and expanding government programs may attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. We study the net effect across these forces based on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program and georeferenced conflict events. Cash transfers did not yield greater pacification but—if anything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events (by 0.63 percentage points), substantially driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Premand & Dominic Rohner, 2024. "Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 137-153, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:6:y:2024:i:1:p:137-53
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230069
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marion Richard & Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2025. "Cooperation between National Armies: Evidence from the Sahel borders," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp2507, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    2. Pople, Ashley Charlotte & Premand, Patrick & Dercon,Stefan & Vinez, Margaux & Brunelin, Stephanie, 2025. "The Earlier the Better? Cash Transfers for Drought Response in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11138, The World Bank.
    3. Hirvonen, Kalle & Machado, Elia Axinia & Simons, Andrew M., 2024. "Do social protection programs reduce conflict risk? Evidence from a large-scale safety net program in rural Ethiopia," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343590, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Brancati, Emanuele & Di Maio, Michele & Gatti, Roberta V. & Islam, Asif M, 2024. "Under Pressure: Global Evidence on Conflict and Firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10898, The World Bank.
    5. Klaus W. Deininger & Daniel Ayalew Ali, 2024. "Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings : The Case of the Producer Support Grant Program in Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10912, The World Bank.
    6. Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr., 2026. "Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    7. Grimm, Michael & Soubeiga, Sidiki & Weber, Michael, 2024. "Supporting small firms in a fragile context: Comparing matching and cash grants in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    8. Juergen Bitzer & Bernhard C. Dannemann & Erkan Goeren, 2025. "Foreign Aid and Local Conflict Dynamics: A Monthly Grid-Cell-Level Analysis in Africa," Working Papers V-452-25, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised May 2025.
    9. Abushama, Hala & Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw & Abay, Kibrom A. & Siddig, Khalid, 2025. "Intrahousehold preferences for humanitarian assistance—Who prefers what: Evidence from internally displaced households in Sudan," ReSAKSS issue notes 26, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Abay, Kibrom A. & Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin & Abushama, Hala & Kirui, Oliver K. & Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw & Siddig, Khalid, 2025. "Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan," IFPRI discussion papers 2374, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. repec:ags:aaea22:343590 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Richard, Marion & Vanden Eynde, Oliver, 2023. "Cooperation between National Armies: Evidence from the Sahel borders," CEPR Discussion Papers 18674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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