IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctc/serie5/dipe0019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of cognitive skills on investment decisions. An empirical assessment and policy suggestions

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Esposito

    (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Banca d'Italia, Milano)

  • Lorenzo Marrese

    (DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

Abstract

Results of behavioral economics pose a strong challenge to mainstream finance theory conclusions. We discuss, theoretically and empirically, the connections of cognitive skills, biases and financial decisions using the Cognitive Reflection Test (Frederick, 2005). In particular, we have chosen overconfidence, risk aversion, bandwagon effect, time preference and money illusion, among the biases most discussed in the literature. The experiment we conducted confirmed a role of the cognitive skills in determining the decision mechanism of the investor although not neatly, especially for more complex biases, such as money illusion. Finally, we expose policy alternatives, focusing on the role of financial education to tackle cognitive biases in finance and monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Esposito & Lorenzo Marrese, 2021. "The impact of cognitive skills on investment decisions. An empirical assessment and policy suggestions," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0019, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/politica-economica-DIPE0019.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2016. "Minsky at Basel: A Global Cap to Build an Effective Postcrisis Banking Supervision Framework," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_875, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Daiane De Bortoli & Newton da Costa Jr. & Marco Goulart & Jéssica Campara, 2019. "Personality traits and investor profile analysis: A behavioral finance study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2009. "Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 147-152, October.
    4. Massimo Egidi, 2017. "Paths in contemporary economics and sciences of artificial that originate from Simon’s bounded rationality approach," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 7-33.
    5. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2010. "Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1238-1260, June.
    6. Darriet, Elisa & Guille, Marianne & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe & Shimizu, Mariko, 2020. "Money illusion, financial literacy and numeracy: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Moore, Don A. & Cain, Daylian M., 2007. "Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 197-213, July.
    8. Sergio Da Silva & Newton Da Costa Jr & Raul Matsushita & Cristiana Vieira & Ana Correa & Dinorá De Faveri, 2018. "Debt of high-income consumers may reflect leverage rather than poor cognitive reflection," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 42-52, March.
    9. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    10. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    11. Nathan Berg & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2007. "Psychology Implies Paternalism? Bounded Rationality may Reduce the Rationale to Regulate Risk-Taking," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 28(2), pages 337-359, February.
    12. De Bondt, Werner F. M., 1998. "A portrait of the individual investor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 831-844, May.
    13. Daniel Fernandes & John G. Lynch & Richard G. Netemeyer, 2014. "Financial Literacy, Financial Education, and Downstream Financial Behaviors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 1861-1883, August.
    14. Kamara, Avraham, 1997. "New Evidence on the Monday Seasonal in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 63-84, January.
    15. George A. Akerlof, 2003. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 47(1), pages 25-47, March.
    16. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    17. Era Dabla-Norris & Kalpana Kochhar & Nujin Suphaphiphat & Franto Ricka & Evridiki Tsounta, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality; A Global Perspective," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/13, International Monetary Fund.
    18. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    19. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    20. Christelis, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2010. "Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 18-38, January.
    21. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
    22. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    23. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, "undated". "In the Long Run We Are All Herd: On the Nature and Outcomes of the Beauty Contest," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_972, Levy Economics Institute.
    24. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 43-66, Fall.
    25. Hoppe, Eva I. & Kusterer, David J., 2011. "Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 97-100, February.
    26. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2011. "Who lost the most? Financial Literacy, Cognitive Abilities, and the Financial Crisis," MEA discussion paper series 11234, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    27. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti & Linnainmaa, Juhani T., 2012. "IQ, trading behavior, and performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 339-362.
    28. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2019. "Overconfidence over the lifespan: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    29. Daniel J. Benjamin & Sebastian A. Brown & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2013. "Who Is ‘Behavioral’? Cognitive Ability And Anomalous Preferences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1255, December.
    30. repec:awi:wpaper:0465 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    32. George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2011. "Do Behavioral Biases Adversely Affect the Macro-economy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1513-1559.
    33. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Monetary Policy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1501, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    34. Yavuz Arslan and Christian Upper, 2017. "Macroprudential frameworks: implementation and effectiveness," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential frameworks, implementation and relationship with other policies, volume 94, pages 25-47, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Florence Jaumotte & Carolina Osorio Buitron, 2015. "Inequality and Labor Market Institutions," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/14, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Alison L. Booth & Pamela Katic, 2013. "Cognitive Skills, Gender and Risk Preferences," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(284), pages 19-30, March.
    37. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    38. Guiso, Luigi & Pagel, Michaela, 2004. "The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours," CEPR Discussion Papers 4591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. János Vincze, 2019. "Money Illusion: Reconsidered in the Light of Cognitive Science," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(2), pages 191-215, June.
    40. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat & Mr. Franto Ricka & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/013, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Park, Na Young, 2019. "Patience in financial decisions and post-secondary education," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    42. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    43. Muñoz-Murillo, Melisa & Álvarez-Franco, Pilar B. & Restrepo-Tobón, Diego A., 2020. "The role of cognitive abilities on financial literacy: New experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    44. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    45. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    46. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    47. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju & Juhani Linnainmaa, 2011. "IQ and Stock Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2121-2164, December.
    48. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? : On the Role of Reflection and Intuition on Trader Performance," Post-Print hal-02312062, HAL.
    49. Lucy F. Ackert & Richard Deaves & Jennifer Miele & Quang Nguyen, 2020. "Are Time Preference and Risk Preference Associated with Cognitive Intelligence and Emotional Intelligence?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 136-156, April.
    50. Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron, 2015. "Inequality and Labor Market Institutions," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/014, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    3. Nicolas Eber & Patrick Roger & Tristan Roger, 2023. "Finance and intelligence: An overview of the literature," Post-Print hal-04243115, HAL.
    4. Ray Saadaoui Mallek & Mohamed Albaity, 2019. "Individual differences and cognitive reflection across gender and nationality the case of the United Arab Emirates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1567965-156, January.
    5. Mariam Raheem & Ain ul Momina, 2021. "Do Underlying Risk Preferences explain Individuals’ Cognitive Ability? Evidence from a Sample of Pakistani Students," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 85-122, Jan-June.
    6. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    7. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    8. Adam Farago & Martin Holmén & Felix Holzmeister & Michael Kirchler & Michael Razen, 2019. "Cognitive Skills and Economic Preferences in the Fund Industry," Working Papers 2019-16, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Quant Skills, Behavioral Biases and Intuition on Trader Performance," Working Papers 15-17, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    11. Pak, Tae-Young & Babiarz, Patryk, 2018. "Does cognitive aging affect portfolio choice?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Amador, Luis & Brañas-Garza, Pablo & Espín, Antonio M. & Garcia, Teresa & Hernández, Ana, 2019. "Consistent and inconsistent choices under uncertainty: The role of cognitive abilities," MPRA Paper 95178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dietmar Fehr & Steffen Huck, 2016. "Who knows it is a game? On strategic awareness and cognitive ability," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(4), pages 713-726, December.
    14. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:3:p:234-279 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Daniel J. Benjamin & Sebastian A. Brown & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2013. "Who Is ‘Behavioral’? Cognitive Ability And Anomalous Preferences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1255, December.
    17. Zhu, Dan & Hodgkinson, Lynn & Wang, Qingwei, 2018. "Academic performance and financial forecasting performance:A survey study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 45-51.
    18. Blake, David & Duffield, Mel & Tonks, Ian & Haig, Alistair & Blower, Dean & MacPhee, Laura, 2022. "Smart defaults: Determining the number of default funds in a pension scheme," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    19. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "IQ, expectations, and choice," Working Paper Series in Economics 127, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Cueva, Carlos & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo & Mata-Pérez, Esther & Ponti, Giovanni & Sartarelli, Marcello & Yu, Haihan & Zhukova, Vita, 2016. "Cognitive (ir)reflection: New experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 81-93.
    21. Christelis, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2010. "Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 18-38, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cognitive biases; financial education; behavioral economics; CRT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Montobbio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dscatit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.