IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modelling Tails of Aggregated Economic Processes in a Stochastic Growth Model

  • Stéphane Auray



  • Aurélien Eyquem


    (Université de Lyon)

  • Fréderic Jouneau-Sion


    (Université de Lille)

We present an annual sequence of wages in England starting in 1245. We show that a standard AK-type growth model with capital externality and stochastic productivity shocks is unable to explain important features of the data. We then consider random returns to scale. Moderate episodes of increasing returns to scale and growth are shown to be compatible with stationarity. Further, random returns to scale generate heteroskedasticity, a feature common to macroeconomic time series. Third, stationary distributions display fat tails if returns to scale are episodically increasing. We provide several inference results to support randomness of returns to scale.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Crest working paper version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2012-29.

in new window

Length: 30
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-29
Contact details of provider: Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92245 Malakoff Cedex
Phone: 01 41 17 60 81
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. repec:oup:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:143-179 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Jérôme GLACHANT, 1994. "Fil du rasoir et chocs sur les rendements d’échelle," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1994034, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Robert E Lucas, 1999. "Making a Miracle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2101, David K. Levine.
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
  6. Distaso, Walter, 2008. "Testing for unit root processes in random coefficient autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 581-609, January.
  7. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kunihama, Tsuyoshi & Omori, Yasuhiro & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2012. "Generalized extreme value distribution with time-dependence using the AR and MA models in state space form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3241-3259.
  8. Oded Galor, 2007. "Multiple Growth Regimes-Insights from Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2007-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  9. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
  10. Abanto-Valle, C.A. & Bandyopadhyay, D. & Lachos, V.H. & Enriquez, I., 2010. "Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 2883-2898, December.
  11. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:114:y:1999:i:3:p:739-767 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Oded Galor & Omar Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2006. "Inequality in Land Ownership, the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_001, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  13. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 1999. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Inequality in the Process of Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  15. Oded Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409003, EconWPA.
  16. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:2:p:587-616 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hercovitz, Z. & Sampson, M., 1989. "Output Growth, The Real Wage, And Employment Fluctuations," RCER Working Papers 179, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  19. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  20. Nancy L. Stokey, 1990. "Human Capital, Product Quality, And Growth," NBER Working Papers 3413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, 05.
  22. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2013. "Estimating the Marginal Law of a Time Series With Applications to Heavy-Tailed Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 412-425, October.
  23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  24. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767.
  25. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  26. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
  27. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  28. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  29. Nancy L Stokey, 1986. "Learning-by-Doing and the Introduction of New Goods," Discussion Papers 699, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, revised May 1987.
  30. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
  31. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  32. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February.
  33. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  34. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  35. Giannikis, D. & Vrontos, I.D. & Dellaportas, P., 2008. "Modelling nonlinearities and heavy tails via threshold normal mixture GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1549-1571, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Florian Sallaberry)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.