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Modelling Tails of Aggregated Economic Processes in a Stochastic Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Auray

    (ENSAI)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (Université de Lyon)

  • Fréderic Jouneau-Sion

    (Université de Lille)

Abstract

We present an annual sequence of wages in England starting in 1245. We show that a standard AK-type growth model with capital externality and stochastic productivity shocks is unable to explain important features of the data. We then consider random returns to scale. Moderate episodes of increasing returns to scale and growth are shown to be compatible with stationarity. Further, random returns to scale generate heteroskedasticity, a feature common to macroeconomic time series. Third, stationary distributions display fat tails if returns to scale are episodically increasing. We provide several inference results to support randomness of returns to scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Fréderic Jouneau-Sion, 2012. "Modelling Tails of Aggregated Economic Processes in a Stochastic Growth Model," Working Papers 2012-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-29
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Unified growth theory; Heteroskedasticity; Fat tails;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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