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Extremal behavior of aggregated economic processes in a structural growth model

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Auray

    () (Université Lille 3 (GREMARS), Université de Sherbrooke (GREDI) and CIRPÉE)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    () (GATE, UMR 5824, Université de Lyon and Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines, France)

  • Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

    () (Universites Lille Nord de France)

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural approach to growth modeling relying on random return scale. An RBC-like model in which return to scale may be strictly increasing or decreasing depending on shocks is explicitly derived. We show that relevant component of usual macroeconomic models (including capital, growth, various relative prices) are all related to a Random Autoregressive Coefficient model. Recent works on extreme behavior on dependent process emphasize some properties of this model that are worth from the economic viewpoint. First, this model typically displays fat tail behavior event if the shocks do not. Second, records (both historically high and low points) are less frequent than in the usual stationary case but tend to appear in cluster. We show that both fat tails and clustering of extreme values are consistent with arbitrarily small variations of the autoregressive coefficient around the usual unit-root case. As such, distinguishing RCA from a more usual constant autoregressive model from available macro data may then be difficult and typically require very long data set. To this end, we propose a direct test based on the annual sequence of real wages in England recorded since the XIII-th century onwards. The test clearly reject the constant AR model and supports the Random coefficient hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2009. "Extremal behavior of aggregated economic processes in a structural growth model," Cahiers de recherche 09-17, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised 10 Mar 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:09-17
    as

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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-0917.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; extremal behavior; dependent processes;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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