Generalized extreme value distribution with time-dependence using the AR and MA models in state space form
A new state space approach is proposed to model the time-dependence in an extreme value process. The generalized extreme value distribution is extended to incorporate the time-dependence using a state space representation where the state variables either follow an autoregressive (AR) process or a moving average (MA) process with innovations arising from a Gumbel distribution. Using a Bayesian approach, an efficient algorithm is proposed to implement Markov chain Monte Carlo method where we exploit a very accurate approximation of the Gumbel distribution by a ten-component mixture of normal distributions. The methodology is illustrated using extreme returns of daily stock data. The model is fitted to a monthly series of minimum returns and the empirical results support strong evidence for time-dependence among the observed minimum returns.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033|
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2007.
"Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models,"
CIRJE-F-507, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2008. "Block sampler and posterior mode estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2892-2910, February.
- Deheuvels, Paul, 1983. "Point processes and multivariate extreme values," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 257-272, June.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
- Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Fruhwirth, Rudolf, 2007. "Auxiliary mixture sampling with applications to logistic models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3509-3528, April.
- J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
- Toshiaki Watanabe, 2004. "A multi-move sampler for estimating non-Gaussian time series models: Comments on Shephard & Pitt (1997)," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(1), pages 246-248, March.
- Sylvia FrüHwirth-Schnatter & Helga Wagner, 2006. "Auxiliary mixture sampling for parameter-driven models of time series of counts with applications to state space modelling," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(4), pages 827-841, December.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.