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Newcomers and Gatekeepers: Migrants’ Attitudes toward Immigration

Author

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  • Jonathan Pardo
  • Sulin Sardoschau

Abstract

Do migrants become more anti-immigration over time? How do incumbents react to new arrivals? We link large-scale survey data to local immigration flows across 138 European regions from 2002 to 2024, identifying effects via a leave-out shift-share instrument within a triple-difference design. Immigrants arrive strongly pro-immigration, but support erodes over time, halving the native-immigrant gap within two decades. Exposure to new inflows contributes to this convergence: a rising local immigrant share reduces pro-immigration attitudes for both groups, with substantially larger effects for first-generation immigrants. Low-skilled incumbents respond more to inflow size, high-skilled to newcomers' skill composition.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Pardo & Sulin Sardoschau, 2026. "Newcomers and Gatekeepers: Migrants’ Attitudes toward Immigration," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26182, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26182
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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