Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons From Transition Economies After 15 Years Of Reforms
This paper starts by separating the transformational recession (reduction of output in most transition economies in the first half of the 1990s) from the process of economic growth (recovery from the transformational recession) in 28 transition economies (including China,Vietnam and Mongolia). It is argued that the former (the collapse of output during transition) can be best explained as adverse supply shock caused mostly by a change in relative prices after their deregulation due to distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns accumulated during the period of central planning, and by the collapse of state institutions during transition period, while the speed of liberalization, to the extent it was endogenous, i.e. determined by political economy factors, had an adverse effect on performance. In contrast, at the recovery stage the ongoing liberalization starts to affect growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and reasonable macroeconomic policy, however, continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 117418 Russia, Moscow, Nakhimovsky pr., 47, office 720|
Phone: +7 (495) 105 50 02
Fax: +7 (495) 105 50 03
Web page: http://www.cefir.ru
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gérard Roland, 2000.
"Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182033, March.
- Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, March.
- Blanchard, O & Kremer, M, 1996.
96-30, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 38, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael R., 1997. "Disorganization," Scholarly Articles 3659691, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993.
"Social Insurance and Transition,"
NBER Working Papers
4411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lau, Lawrence J. & Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard, 1997.
"Pareto-improving economic reforms through dual-track liberalization,"
Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 285-292, August.
- Lawrence J. Lau & Yingyi Qian & Gerard Roland, . "Pareto-Improving Economic Reforms through Dual-Track Liberalization," Working Papers 97007, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Lau, Lawrence J & Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gérard, 1997. "Pareto-Improving Economic Reforms through Dual-Track Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank.
- Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
- Roland, Gérard & Verdier, Thierry, 1997.
"Transition and the Output Fall,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roland, G. & Verdier, T., 1997. "Transition and the Output Fall," DELTA Working Papers 97-09, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Gerard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1997. "Transition and the Output Fall," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 37, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
- de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Democracy and Growth Reconsidered: Why Economic Performance of New Democracies is not Encouraging," MPRA Paper 21606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Appropriate Economic Policies at Different Stages of Development," MPRA Paper 20066, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906.
- Oleh Havrylyshyn & Ron van Rooden, 2003. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But So Do Policies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 2-24, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.