IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/7485.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Challet, Damien
  • Solomon, Sorin
  • Yaari, Gur

Abstract

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector theoretical model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Challet, Damien & Solomon, Sorin & Yaari, Gur, 2009. "The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2009-6
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/27487/1/dp2009-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kolodko, Grzegorz W., 2000. "From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198297437.
    3. Vladimir Popov, 2006. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons From Transition Economies After 15 Years Of Reforms," Working Papers w0068, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. G. Yaari & A. Nowak & K. Rakocy & S. Solomon, 2008. "Microscopic study reveals the singular origins of growth," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 505-513, April.
    6. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-133, May.
    7. Vladimir Popov, 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    10. Gur Yaari & Andrzej Nowak & Kamil Rakocy & Sorin Solomon, 2008. "Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth," Papers 0803.2201, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sorin Solomon & Nataša Golo, 2015. "Microeconomic structure determines macroeconomic dynamics: Aoki defeats the representative agent," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 5-30, April.
    2. dos Santos, Renato Vieira & da Silva, Linaena Méricy, 2015. "Discreteness induced extinction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 17-25.
    3. Natasa Golo & Guy Kelman & David S. Bree & Leanne Usher & Marco Lamieri & Sorin Solomon, 2015. "Many-to-one contagion of economic growth rate across trade credit network of firms," Papers 1506.01734, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; transition economies; GDP; modelling; prediction; optimal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.