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What a Difference Kyoto Made: Evidence from Instrumental Variables Estimation

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  • Rahel Aichele

    ()

  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    ()

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol’s success or failure should be evaluated against the unobserved counterfactual of no treatment. This requires instrumental variables. We find that countries’ membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC) predicts Kyoto ratification in a panel model. Both multilateral policy initiatives triggered concerns about national sovereignty in many countries. We argue that ICC membership can be excluded from second-stage regressions explaining emissions and other outcomes. This is supported by first-stage diagnostics. Our results suggest that Kyoto had measurable beneficial effects on the average Kyoto country’s energy mix, fuel prices, energy use and emissions, but may have speeded up deindustrialization.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2011. "What a Difference Kyoto Made: Evidence from Instrumental Variables Estimation," ifo Working Paper Series 102, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_102
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/IfoWorkingPaper-102.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO 2 emissions; energy; evaluation model; instrumental variables; Kyoto Protocol;

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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