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What a Difference Kyoto Made: Evidence from Instrumental Variables Estimation

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Listed author(s):
  • Rahel Aichele

    ()

  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    ()

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol’s success or failure should be evaluated against the unobserved counterfactual of no treatment. This requires instrumental variables. We find that countries’ membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC) predicts Kyoto ratification in a panel model. Both multilateral policy initiatives triggered concerns about national sovereignty in many countries. We argue that ICC membership can be excluded from second-stage regressions explaining emissions and other outcomes. This is supported by first-stage diagnostics. Our results suggest that Kyoto had measurable beneficial effects on the average Kyoto country’s energy mix, fuel prices, energy use and emissions, but may have speeded up deindustrialization.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2011/IfoWorkingPaper-102.pdf
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Paper provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 102.

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Date of creation: 2011
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_102
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Keywords: CO 2 emissions; energy; evaluation model; instrumental variables; Kyoto Protocol;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
  • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
  • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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  1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2008. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression," Scholarly Articles 28461843, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Kurt J. Beron & James C. Murdoch & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 2003. "Why Cooperate? Public Goods, Economic Power, and the Montreal Protocol," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 286-297, May.
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  9. Matthew A. Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors On Air Pollution," Labor and Demography 0312005, EconWPA, revised 13 May 2004.
  10. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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