What a Difference Kyoto Made: Evidence from Instrumental Variables Estimation
The Kyoto Protocolâ€™s success or failure should be evaluated against the unobserved counterfactual of no treatment. This requires instrumental variables. We find that countriesâ€™ membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC) predicts Kyoto ratification in a panel model. Both multilateral policy initiatives triggered concerns about national sovereignty in many countries. We argue that ICC membership can be excluded from second-stage regressions explaining emissions and other outcomes. This is supported by first-stage diagnostics. Our results suggest that Kyoto had measurable beneficial effects on the average Kyoto countryâ€™s energy mix, fuel prices, energy use and emissions, but may have speeded up deindustrialization.
|Date of creation:||2011|
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