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Mind the Lag: Using Assessed and List Prices as Proxies for Housing Market Values

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  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt
  • Hans R. A. Koster
  • Tu Giang Vu
  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt

Abstract

Property transaction prices are widely regarded as the best measure of property value, but are sometimes unavailable. Using data from the Netherlands and New York, we analyze whether list prices and assessed values are reliable substitutes. In the cross-section, both proxies strongly predict sales prices, and estimated hedonic implicit prices resemble those based on sales prices. Over time, there is a sluggish adjustment in both proxies, but much more so in assessed values - particularly when they are based on rental incomes. While assessed values are well-suited for cross-sectional hedonic modelling or the quantification of static quantitative spatial models, list prices are better suited for the estimation of hedonic implicit prices from variation over time, although some attenuation bias should be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Hans R. A. Koster & Tu Giang Vu & Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2025. "Mind the Lag: Using Assessed and List Prices as Proxies for Housing Market Values," CESifo Working Paper Series 12290, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12290
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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