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Burbuja y Estancamiento del Crédito en Colombia

  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

La virtual parálisis del mercado crediticio de los últimos años es uno de los problemas más graves de la economía colombiana, no sólo por sus consecuencias negativas sobre la dinámica del crecimiento económico, sino también porque refleja profundos desequilibrios y resquebrajamientos en la estructura y las relaciones financieras de los distintos sectores de la economía. Recientemente ha ganado aceptación la idea de que la exigua dinámica de la cartera crediticia al sector privado y, de hecho, sus tasas negativas de crecimiento de los últimos tres años, está relacionada con la crisis que registró la economía colombiana en 1999 y sus antecedentes. Una situación similar ha afectado a buena parte de los países emergentes, cuyas economías vivieron episodios de reforma estructural y ciclos de flujos internacionales de capital, los que fueron seguidos de espectaculares catástrofes económicas con presencia de crisis cambiarias o bancarias y, en algunos casos, con los dos tipos de crisis en forma simultánea [Furman y Stiglitz (1998) y de la Torre et al (2002]. En el caso colombiano, marcado por buena parte de estos mismos episodios, las características centrales de la crisis han sido su duración y la severidad de los desequilibrios financieros de carácter sectorial que la han acompañado. Las secuelas de uno y otro fenómeno persisten y han marcado el desempeño actual de la economía y su financiamiento. Igualmente, han dado lugar a un intenso debate sobre las alternativas de política frente al problema, acerca del vigor y la calidad de la recuperación y respecto al peso de factores de oferta y de demanda en la explicación del estancamiento observado en el crédito al sector privado.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 215.

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