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Equality of Opportunity and Efficiency in Tertiary Education: a Data-Driven Perspective

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  • Fabio Farella

    (University of Bari)

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of inequality of opportunity (EIOp) and the efficiency of public spending in tertiary education across 31 countries using European Social Survey data for 2010, 2018, and 2023. EIOp is estimated using the conditional inference forests (CIFs) algorithm, with model accuracy assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). A two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) assesses the efficiency of public spending in tertiary education. The findings indicate a general post-COVID-19 decline in EIOp, while cross-country disparities persist. Moreover, for the overall country sample, it would be theoretically possible to reduce the Dissimilarity index of inequality of opportunity, adjusted for the share of tertiary graduates, by 31% in 2010 and 22% in 2018 with current resource levels. A Tobit regression explores exogenous factors associated with efficiency scores. The results are robust to a set of sensitivity analyses and offer a benchmark for policymakers seeking to enhance both fairness and efficiency in higher education.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Farella, 2025. "Equality of Opportunity and Efficiency in Tertiary Education: a Data-Driven Perspective," SERIES 02-2025, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_02-2025
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    File URL: http://www.seriesworkingpapers.it/RePEc/bai/series/SERIES_WP_02-2025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inequality of opportunity; tertiary education; machine learning; two-stage DEA; public spending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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