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Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia

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  • Nick Carroll

Abstract

What influences the probability that someone will leave unemployment? Informed by a search-theoretic framework and allowing for exits to not in the labour force and employment, I examine what influences the probability that somebody will leave unemployment. The unemployment data used are derived from the retrospective work history information from the first two waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. I find that variables that increase wage offers and lower reservation wages are associated with shorter durations of unemployment and that exit rates from unemployment appear to remain steady initially with duration before declining relatively sharply.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Carroll, 2004. "Explaining Unemployment Duration in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 483, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:483
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/cepr/DP483.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 319-324, March.
    3. Brooks, Clive & Volker, Paul, 1986. "The Probability of Leaving Unemployment: The Influence of Duration, Destination and Demographics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(178), pages 296-309, September.
    4. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-659, May.
    5. Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Barrett, Garry F., 2000. "The effect of educational attainment on welfare dependence: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 209-232, August.
    7. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-332, March.
    8. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    2. Hock-Eam Lim Author_Email: lheam@uum.edu.my, 2011. "The Determinants Of Individual Unemployment Duration: The Case Of Malaysian Graduates," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-510, Conference Master Resources.
    3. Hock-Eam Lim, 2011. "The Determinants Of Individual Unemployment Duration: The Case Of Malaysian Graduates," Journal of Global Management, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(2), pages 184-203, July.
    4. Anton Samoilenko & Kristie Carter, 2015. "Economic Outcomes of Youth not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Vikman, Ulrika, 2010. "Does Providing Childcare to Unemployed Affect Unemployment Duration?," Working Paper Series 2010:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Darja Boršič & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "Modeling Unemployment Duration in Slovenia using Cox Regression Models," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 145-156, May.
    7. Jeff Borland & David Johnston, 2010. "How Does a Worker's Labour Market History Affect Job Duration?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Long-Term Unemployment in the ACT," CEPR Discussion Papers 603, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    9. repec:bla:ecorec:v:93:y:2017:i:301:p:238-254 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survival analysis unemployment durations;

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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