IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2503.06599.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty, energy markets, and food markets: A time-frequency analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ting Zhang
  • Peng-Fei Li
  • Wei-Xing Zhou

Abstract

The study examines the return connectedness between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy, fossil energy, and food markets. Using the time-domain method of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and frequency-domain methods of Barun{\'{i}}k and K{\v{r}}hl{\'{i}}k (2018), we find substantial spillover effects between these markets. Furthermore, high frequency domain is the primary driver of overall connectedness. In addition, CPU is a net contributor of return shocks in the short term, whereas it turns to be a net recipient in the medium and long terms. Across all frequencies, clean energy and oils are consistent net recipients, while meat is a dominant net contributor.

Suggested Citation

  • Ting Zhang & Peng-Fei Li & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "Spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty, energy markets, and food markets: A time-frequency analysis," Papers 2503.06599, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.06599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.06599
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romain Menier & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Alexandre Gohin, 2024. "On the dependence structure of European vegetable oil markets," Post-Print hal-04523660, HAL.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    3. Iqbal, Najaf & Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Alsagr, Naif, 2024. "Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "On the interdependence between biofuel, fossil fuel and agricultural food prices: Evidence from quantile tests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 536-545.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    6. Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Lucey, Brian M. & Ashraf, Sania, 2023. "Asymmetric relationship between climate policy uncertainty and energy metals: Evidence from cross-quantilogram," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Guo, Kun & Li, Yichong & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wanli, 2023. "How are climate risk shocks connected to agricultural markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. David Laborde & Abdullah Mamun & Will Martin & Valeria Piñeiro & Rob Vos, 2021. "Agricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Janne Kettunen & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(1), pages 77-118, January.
    10. Han, Xinxueqi & Hua, En & Engel, Bernie A. & Guan, Jiajie & Yin, Jieling & Wu, Nan & Sun, Shikun & Wang, Yubao, 2022. "Understanding implications of climate change and socio-economic development for the water-energy-food nexus: A meta-regression analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    11. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Guo, Jin & Wang, Xiufang, 2024. "Understanding the spillover effects of ethanol production and energy prices on African food markets: A time-varying approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Wu, You & Ren, Wenting & Wan, Jieru & Liu, Xiaoxue, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility connectedness between fossil energy and agricultural commodities: Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic with the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    14. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    16. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wang, Zu-Shan & Yunis, Manal & Kchouri, Bilal, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    19. Siddique, Md. Abubakar & Nobanee, Haitham & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hossain, Md. Naiem & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Issariyakul, Titipong & Dalai, Ajay K., 2014. "Biodiesel from vegetable oils," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 446-471.
    21. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    22. Puneet Vatsa & Dragan Miljkovic & Jungho Baek, 2023. "Linkages between natural gas, fertiliser and cereal prices: A note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 935-940, September.
    23. Syed, Qasim Raza & Apergis, Nicholas & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2023. "The dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy in the US: Applying the novel Fourier augmented autoregressive distributed lags approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    24. Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf & Klein, Tony, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    25. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2021. "On the Nonlinear Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the World Food Prices Under Different Markets Conditions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 73-95, January.
    26. Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh & Roudari, Soheil & Omidi, Vahid & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2024. "Contagion effect between fuel fossil energies and agricultural commodity markets and portfolio management implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    27. Vo, Duc Hong & Tran, Minh Phuoc-Bao, 2024. "Volatility spillovers between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing food & energy crisis: Does uncertainty from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    28. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
    29. Wang, Xunxiao, 2020. "Frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers among crude oil and international stock markets: The role of the interest rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    30. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2023. "The dynamic spillover effects of climate policy uncertainty and coal price on carbon price: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    31. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Johnson & Michael Helmar & Harry Baumes, 2014. "Long-run and Short-run Co-movements in Energy Prices and the Prices of Agricultural Feedstocks for Biofuel," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 991-1008.
    32. Shang, Yunfeng & Han, Ding & Gozgor, Giray & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Bimal Kishore, 2022. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on renewable and non-renewable energy demand in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 654-667.
    33. Qiao, Sen & Chang, Yuan & Mai, Xi Xi & Dang, Yi Jing, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty, clean energy and energy metals: A quantile time-frequency spillover study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    34. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    35. Romain Menier & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Alexandre Gohin, 2024. "On the dependence structure of European vegetable oil markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(52), pages 6611-6630, November.
    36. Gong, Xu & Jin, Yujing & Liu, Tangyong, 2023. "Analyzing pure contagion between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    37. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    38. Chen, Jinyu & Liang, Zhipeng & Ding, Qian & Liu, Zhenhua, 2022. "Extreme spillovers among fossil energy, clean energy, and metals markets: Evidence from a quantile-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    39. Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Xi & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Time and frequency domain connectedness analysis of the energy transformation under climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    40. Addey, Kwame Asiam & Nganje, William, 2024. "Climate policy volatility hinders renewable energy consumption: Evidence from yardstick competition theory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    41. Zhou, Deheng & Siddik, Abu Bakkar & Guo, Lili & Li, Houjian, 2023. "Dynamic relationship among climate policy uncertainty, oil price and renewable energy consumption—findings from TVP-SV-VAR approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 722-732.
    42. Miljkovic, Dragan & Vatsa, Puneet, 2023. "On the linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices: A dynamic time warping analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ting Zhang & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "The impact of external uncertainties on the extreme return connectedness between food, fossil energy, and clean energy markets," Papers 2503.06603, arXiv.org.
    2. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.
    3. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Liang, Chao & Goodell, John W. & Li, Xiafei, 2024. "Impacts of carbon market and climate policy uncertainties on financial and economic stability: Evidence from connectedness network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Guo, Kun & Li, Yichong & Zhang, Yunhan & Chen, Yingtong & Ma, Yanran, 2024. "Cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices: Dynamic patterns and the role of climate transition risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Siddique, Md. Abubakar & Nobanee, Haitham & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hossain, Md. Naiem & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Polat, Onur & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Sakarya, Burçhan & Akgül, Ali, 2024. "TVP-VAR based time and frequency domain food & energy commodities connectedness an analysis for financial/geopolitical turmoil episodes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    8. Wang, Lu & Guan, Li & Ding, Qian & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of COVID-19 news on the connectedness of the green energy, dirty energy, and non-ferrous metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Li-Dong & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The spillover effects among fossil fuel, renewables and carbon markets: Evidence under the dual dilemma of climate change and energy crises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    10. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Yubo & Gao, Wang & Li, Yingli, 2023. "Extreme quantile spillovers and drivers among clean energy, electricity and energy metals markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sheikh, Umaid A. & Tabash, Mosab I. & Jiao, Zhilun, 2024. "Shock transmission between climate policy uncertainty, financial stress indicators, oil price uncertainty and industrial metal volatility: Identifying moderators, hedgers and shock transmitters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    13. El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M. & Li, Yanshuang & Xiong, Xiong, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness among G7 stock markets and clean energy markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 71-90.
    14. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    15. Tian, Lihui & Li, Xin & Lee, Cheng-Wen & Spulbăr, Cristi, 2024. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of artificial intelligence on renewable energy under climate policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wang, Zu-Shan & Yunis, Manal & Kchouri, Bilal, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2024. "Do climate change risks affect the systemic risk between the stocks of clean energy, electric vehicles, and critical minerals? Analysis under changing market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Zhang, Hongwei & Li, Zongzhen & Song, Huiling & Gao, Wang, 2024. "Insight into clean energy market’s role in the connectedness between joint-consumption metals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    19. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.06599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.