IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2402.07235.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Yang Tham
  • Joseph Staudt
  • Elisabeth Ruth Perlman
  • Stephanie D. Cheng

Abstract

We study how delays in NIH grant funding affect the career outcomes of research personnel. Using comprehensive earnings and tax records linked to university transaction data along with a difference-in-differences design, we find that a funding interruption of more than 30 days has a substantial effect on job placements for personnel who work in labs with a single NIH R01 research grant, including a 3 percentage point (40%) increase in the probability of not working in the US. Incorporating information from the full 2020 Decennial Census and data on publications, we find that about half of those induced into nonemployment appear to permanently leave the US and are 90% less likely to publish in a given year, with even larger impacts for trainees (postdocs and graduate students). Among personnel who continue to work in the US, we find that interrupted personnel earn 20% less than their continuously-funded peers, with the largest declines concentrated among trainees and other non-faculty personnel (such as staff and undergraduates). Overall, funding delays account for about 5% of US nonemployment in our data, indicating that they have a meaningful effect on the scientific labor force at the national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Yang Tham & Joseph Staudt & Elisabeth Ruth Perlman & Stephanie D. Cheng, 2024. "Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps," Papers 2402.07235, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.07235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.07235
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Delia Furtado, 2019. "Settling for Academia?: H-1B Visas and the Career Choices of International Students in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 401-429.
    2. Florian Ederer & Gustavo Manso, 2013. "Is Pay for Performance Detrimental to Innovation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1496-1513, July.
    3. Pierre Azoulay & Joshua S. Graff Zivin & Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Incentives and creativity: evidence from the academic life sciences," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(3), pages 527-554, September.
    4. Duflo, Esther, 2017. "The Economist as Plumber," CEPR Discussion Papers 11881, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kahn, Shulamit & MacGarvie, Megan, 2020. "The impact of permanent residency delays for STEM PhDs: Who leaves and why," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(9).
    6. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
    7. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    8. Esther Duflo, 2017. "Richard T. Ely Lecture: The Economist as Plumber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 1-26, May.
    9. Aucejo, Esteban M. & French, Jacob & Ugalde Araya, Maria Paola & Zafar, Basit, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Ina Ganguli & Shulamit Kahn & Megan MacGarvie, 2019. "Introduction to "The Roles of Immigrants and Foreign Students in US Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship"," NBER Chapters, in: The Roles of Immigrants and Foreign Students in US Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Baker, Andrew C. & Larcker, David F. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 370-395.
    12. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Furtado, Delia & Xu, Huanan, 2019. "OPT policy changes and foreign born STEM talent in the U.S," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    14. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    15. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    16. Daniel P. Gross & Bhaven N. Sampat, 2023. "America, Jump-Started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the US Innovation System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3323-3356, December.
    17. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    18. Christopher Huckfeldt, 2022. "Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1273-1310, April.
    19. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
    20. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Fabian Lange, 2014. "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 1-21.
    21. Azoulay, Pierre & Greenblatt, Wesley H. & Heggeness, Misty L., 2021. "Long-term effects from early exposure to research: Evidence from the NIH “Yellow Berets”," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    22. Christopher Goetz & Zachary Kroff, 2021. "Recent Improvements to the Integrated Longitudinal Business Database (ILBD)," CES Technical Notes Series 21-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    23. James C. Davis & Holden A. Diethorn & Gerald R. Marschke & Andrew J. Wang, 2021. "STEM Employment Resiliency During Recessions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Esther Duflo, 2017. "The Economist as Plumber," NBER Working Papers 23213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Gene Russo, 2008. "Should the NIH spread its wealth?," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7185), pages 381-381, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    2. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    3. Dina Pomeranz & José Vila-Belda, 2019. "Taking State-Capacity Research to the Field: Insights from Collaborations with Tax Authorities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 755-781, August.
    4. Dak-Adzaklo, Cephas Simon Peter & Wong, Raymond M.K., 2024. "Corporate governance reforms, societal trust, and corporate financial policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Haaland, Venke Furre, 2013. "The Lost Generation: Effects of Youth Labor Market Opportunities on Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/8, University of Stavanger.
    6. Nocito, Samuel & Sartarelli, Marcello & Sobbrio, Francesco, 2023. "A beam of light: Media, tourism and economic development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2022. "Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Francesco Bogliacino & Cristiano Codagnone & Frans Folkvord & Francisco Lupiáñez-Villanueva, 2023. "The impact of labour market shocks on mental health: evidence from the Covid-19 first wave," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(3), pages 899-930, October.
    9. Krause, Philipp & Hernández Licona, Gonzalo, 2020. "From experimental findings to evidence-based policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Davidson, Carl & Heyman, Fredrik & Matusz, Steven & Sjöholm, Fredrik & Chun Zhu, Susan, 2022. "How International Experience Helps Shape Labor Market Outcomes," Working Paper Series 1453, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 09 Jun 2024.
    11. Guo, Junjie, 2022. "The persistent impact of multiple offers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    13. John Gibson, 2021. "The micro‐geography of academic research: How distinctive is economics?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(4), pages 467-484, September.
    14. Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven & Surbhi Kesar, 2021. "Standing in the Way of Rigor? Economics’ Meeting with the Decolonizing Agenda," Working Papers 2110, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    15. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2021. "Truth vs justification: contrasting heterodox and mainstream thinking on development via the example of austerity in Africa," CEPN Working Papers hal-03139457, HAL.
    16. Alem, Mauro & Jorge Elias, Julio, 2018. "Allocating production risks through credit cum insurance contracts: the design and implementation of a fund for small cotton growers to access market finance," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(2), March.
    17. B. James Deaton, 2019. "Agricultural economics: Key commitments and institutional alertness," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(1), pages 5-14, March.
    18. Brick, Kerri & De Martino, Samantha & Visser, Martine, 2023. "Behavioural nudges for water conservation in unequal settings: Experimental evidence from Cape Town," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Rehse, Dominik & Tremöhlen, Felix, 2020. "Fostering participation in digital public health interventions: The case of digital contact tracing," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-076, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Gabriele Lucchetti & Alessandro Ruggieri, 2023. "Unlucky migrants: Scarring effect of recessions on the assimilation of the foreign born," Discussion Papers 2023-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.07235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.