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Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps

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  • Wei Yang Tham
  • Joseph Staudt
  • Elisabeth Ruth Perlman
  • Stephanie D. Cheng

Abstract

We study how delays in NIH grant funding affect the career outcomes of research personnel. Using comprehensive earnings and tax records linked to university transaction data along with a difference-in-differences design, we find that a funding interruption of more than 30 days has a substantial effect on job placements for personnel who work in labs with a single NIH R01 research grant, including a 3 percentage point (40%) increase in the probability of not working in the US. Incorporating information from the full 2020 Decennial Census and data on publications, we find that about half of those induced into nonemployment appear to permanently leave the US and are 90% less likely to publish in a given year, with even larger impacts for trainees (postdocs and graduate students). Among personnel who continue to work in the US, we find that interrupted personnel earn 20% less than their continuously-funded peers, with the largest declines concentrated among trainees and other non-faculty personnel (such as staff and undergraduates). Overall, funding delays account for about 5% of US nonemployment in our data, indicating that they have a meaningful effect on the scientific labor force at the national level.

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  • Wei Yang Tham & Joseph Staudt & Elisabeth Ruth Perlman & Stephanie D. Cheng, 2024. "Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps," Working Papers 24-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-08
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    1. Theresa Gullo & Benjamin Page & David Weiner & Heidi L. Williams, 2024. "Estimating the Economic and Budgetary Effects of Research Investments," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christoph Carnehl & Marco Ottaviani & Justus Preusser, 2024. "Designing Scientific Grants," Papers 2410.12356, arXiv.org.
    3. Azoulay, Pierre & Heggeness, Misty & Kao, Jennifer, 2025. "Medical research and health care finance: Evidence from Academic Medical Centers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(2).

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