IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kue/epaper/e-25-008.html

The impact of US export controls on firms’ export behavior in a third country: Evidence from Japanese customs data

Author

Listed:
  • Naoto JINJI
  • Keiko ITO
  • Toshiyuki MATSUURA

Abstract

This study examines how US export controls targeting Chinese firms affect the export behavior of Japanese firms using Japan Customs data. Focusing on the impact of the US Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List (EL), we identify exports from Japanese firms to Chinese firm added to the EL by the end of 2022. We find that inclusion of Chinese firms in the EL led to a significant reduction in Japanese firms’ exports to those firms. In response, the affected Japanese firms increased their exports to non-targeted Chinese firms and firms in countries aligned with the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoto JINJI & Keiko ITO & Toshiyuki MATSUURA, 2025. "The impact of US export controls on firms’ export behavior in a third country: Evidence from Japanese customs data," Discussion papers e-25-008, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dp/papers/e-25-008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "The Trade Effects of the US Export Control Regulations," IDE Discussion Papers 911, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Sajid Anwar & Beibei Hu & Qiao Luan & Kai Wang, 2024. "Export controls and innovation performance: Unravelling the complex relationship between blacklisted Chinese firms and U.S. suppliers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2995-3033, July.
    3. Mitsuyo Ando & Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura, 2024. "Supply Chain Decoupling: Geopolitical Debates and Economic Dynamism in East Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 62-79, January.
    4. Pengfei Han & Wei Jiang & Danqing Mei, 2024. "Mapping U.S.–China Technology Decoupling: Policies, Innovation, and Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8386-8413, December.
    5. Ito, Keiko & Endoh, Masahiro & Jinji, Naoto & Matsuura, Toshiyuki & Okubo, Toshihiro & Sasahara, Akira, 2025. "Margins, concentration, and the performance of firms in international trade: Evidence from Japanese customs data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Mitsuyo Ando & Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura, 2024. "The Threat of Economic Deglobalization from Cold War 2.0: A Japanese Perspective," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 23(1), pages 46-65, Winter/Sp.
    7. Monarch, Ryan & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Longevity and the value of trade relationships," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2018. "Identifying foreign suppliers in U.S. import data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 117-139, February.
    9. Ghanem, Dalia & Hirshleifer, Sarojini & Kédagni, Désiré & Ortiz-Becerra, Karen, 2024. "Correcting attrition bias using changes-in-changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    10. Baker, Andrew C. & Larcker, David F. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 370-395.
    11. Kim, Hanhin & Cho, Jaehan, 2024. "The impact of US export controls on Korean semiconductor exports," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 46(3), pages 1-23.
    12. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    13. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    14. Shen, Haomin & Gao, Yuan & Cheng, Xiaoke & Wang, Qi, 2024. "The impact of the U.S. export controls on Chinese firms' innovation: Evidence from Chinese high-tech firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    15. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    16. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. BAEK,Youngmin & HAYAKAWA,Kazunobu & PARK,Danbee, 2026. "Firm Responses to Export Controls: Evidence from the Japan–Korea Trade Dispute," IDE Discussion Papers 991, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Wei Yang Tham & Joseph Staudt & Elisabeth Ruth Perlman & Stephanie D. Cheng, 2024. "Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps," Working Papers 24-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. He, Yuhan & Lyu, Jinqiu, 2025. "Export controls and innovation transfer within Chinese business groups: Evidence from the U.S. entity list," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(9).
    4. HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu & KIMURA, Fukunari & YAMANOUCHI, Kenta, 2025. "The trade effects of export control regulations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Lin, Ling & Xiao, Min & Yao, Rongrong & Zhang, Xiaoying, 2024. "Product market liberalization and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Keiko ITO, 2025. "The Collateral Damage of US Export Control Regulations on Japanese Suppliers’ Exports to China," Discussion papers 25061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Dak-Adzaklo, Cephas Simon Peter & Wong, Raymond M.K., 2024. "Corporate governance reforms, societal trust, and corporate financial policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Li, Pei & Liu, Kaihao & Lu, Yi & Peng, Lu, 2025. "Organizing regulatory structure and local air quality: Evidence from the environmental vertical management reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-164.
    9. Deng, Liuchun & Müller, Steffen & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2024. "Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    10. Davidson, Carl & Heyman, Fredrik & Matusz, Steven & Sjöholm, Fredrik & Chun Zhu, Susan, 2022. "From Local to Global: How Foreign Acquisitions Reshape Job Mobility," Working Paper Series 1453, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 25 Nov 2025.
    11. Garman, Amy D. & Kubick, Thomas R., 2025. "Mitigating risk-shifting in corporate pension plans: Evidence from stakeholder constituency statutes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1).
    12. Melnik, Walter & Smyth, Andrew, 2024. "R&D tax credits and innovation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Georgios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Zhang, Yu, 2024. "Do CFO career concerns matter? Evidence from IPO financial reporting outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    15. Xin, Yingying & Thewissen, James & Tsang, Albert & Yan, Shuo, 2025. "Board gender diversity reforms and corporate social responsibility: International evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. Moschion, Julie & van Ours, Jan C., 2025. "Lifting up the lives of extremely disadvantaged youth: The role of staying in school longer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    17. Chen, Xing & Huang, Zhijian (James) & Li, Zhuo & Wen, Fenghua, 2025. "Impact from a distance: Emotionally attached-place disasters and corporate risk-taking," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Brick, Kerri & De Martino, Samantha & Visser, Martine, 2023. "Behavioural nudges for water conservation in unequal settings: Experimental evidence from Cape Town," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Li, Xiao & Ng, Jeffrey & Saffar, Walid, 2025. "Movable assets as collateral in debt financing and effects on trade credit: Evidence from collateral law reforms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Yu, Yantuan & Zhang, Ning, 2025. "Towards low-carbon development through integration of technology and finance: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Graduate School of Economics Project Center (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fekyojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.