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Capital Flows and the Stabilizing Role of Macroprudential Policies in CESEE

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Listed:
  • Markus Eller
  • Niko Hauzenberger
  • Florian Huber
  • Helene Schuberth
  • Lukas Vashold

Abstract

In line with the recent policy discussion on the use of macroprudential measures to respond to cross-border risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify to what extent macroprudential policies (MPPs) have been able to stabilize capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) -- a region that experienced a substantial boom-bust cycle in capital flows amid the global financial crisis and where policymakers had been quite active in adopting MPPs already before that crisis. To study the dynamic responses of capital flows to MPP shocks, we propose a novel regime-switching factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. It allows to capture potential structural breaks in the policy regime and to control -- besides domestic macroeconomic quantities -- for the impact of global factors such as the global financial cycle. Feeding into this model a novel intensity-adjusted macroprudential policy index, we find that tighter MPPs may be effective in containing domestic private sector credit growth and the volumes of gross capital inflows in a majority of the countries analyzed. However, they do not seem to generally shield CESEE countries from capital flow volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Eller & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth & Lukas Vashold, 2020. "Capital Flows and the Stabilizing Role of Macroprudential Policies in CESEE," Papers 2009.06391, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.06391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    2. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Andrea Ferrero & Alessandro Rebucci, 2017. "International credit supply shocks," Bank of England working papers 680, Bank of England.
    3. Coman, Andra & Lloyd, Simon P., 2022. "In the face of spillovers: Prudential policies in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    6. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2018. "Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures," IMF Working Papers 2018/217, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Ferrero, Andrea & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "International credit supply shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 219-237.
    8. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2016. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 95-102, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Markus Eller & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth, 2016. "Understanding the drivers of capital flows into the CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 79-104.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Mercado, 2025. "Taming the “Capital Flows-Credit Nexus”: A Sectoral Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 373-429, April.

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