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Green Light for Green Agricultural Policies? An Analysis at Regional and Global Scales

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  • Britz, Wolfgang
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Pelikan, Janine

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of introducing a biodiversity-targeted program for ecological focus area on all farms with arable land in the EU by quantifying its global and regional, economic and environmental impacts in a mutually consistent way. This is challenging due to the differing spatial scales of the problem – ranging from on-farm decisions regarding setaside in the EU, to supply response around the world. In order to address this challenge, we combine the supply side of the CAPRI model, which offers high spatial, farm and policy resolution in the EU, with the GTAP model of global trade and land use. Both models are linked through a multi-product, restricted revenue function for the EU crops sector. The results predict improved environmental status in the high yielding regions of the EU. However, price increases trigger intensification in the more marginal areas of Europe where little or no additional land is taken out of production. We find that the loss of 3.7 Mio ha of arable land in the EU is partially compensated by an increase of 0.4 Mio ha in other regions of the globe, as well as increased fertilizer applications. Thus the improvement of environmental status in the EU comes at the price of global intensification, as well as the loss of forest and grass land areas outside the EU. Overall, we find that every hectare of land that is set-aside in the EU increases these emissions in the rest of the world by 20.8 tonnes CO2eq.

Suggested Citation

  • Britz, Wolfgang & Hertel, Thomas W. & Pelikan, Janine, 2013. "Green Light for Green Agricultural Policies? An Analysis at Regional and Global Scales," Conference papers 332309, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332309
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    1. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2011. "EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI--How to consistently disaggregate sector models into farm type models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 146-167, January.
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    2. Robert M'barek & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Pierre Boulanger & Arnaldo Caivano & Pavel Ciaian & Hasan Dudu & Maria Espinosa Goded & Thomas Fellmann & Emanuele Ferrari & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma & Celso Gorri, 2017. "Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020," JRC Research Reports JRC108449, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    4. PHILIPPIDIS George & Helming John & Tabeau Andrzej, 2017. "Model linkage between CAPRI and MAGNET: An exploratory assessment," JRC Research Reports JRC106595, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W., 2013. "Land, Environment and Climate: Contributing to the Global Public Good," WIDER Working Paper Series 107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    7. Johnson, Justin Andrew & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas & Nootenboom, Chris & Polasky, Stephen & Roxburgh, Toby, 2020. "Global Futures: Modelling the global economic impacts of environmental change to support policy-making," Technical Papers 323944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Gohin, Alexandre & Zheng, Yu, 2015. "Assessing the Market Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: Does Farmers’ Risk Attitude Matter?," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229235, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Alexandre Gohin & Yu Zheng, 2016. "Assessing the Market Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: Does Farmers' Risk Attitude Matter?," FOODSECURE Working papers 46, LEI Wageningen UR.
    10. Correa, Diego F. & Beyer, Hawthorne L. & Possingham, Hugh P. & Thomas-Hall, Skye R. & Schenk, Peer M., 2017. "Biodiversity impacts of bioenergy production: Microalgae vs. first generation biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1131-1146.
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    12. Barreiro-Hurle, Jesus & Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio & Jansson, Torbjoern & Fellman, Thomas & Weiss, Franz, "undated". "The role of technology in avoiding leakage from unilateral mitigation targets in agriculture: the case of the EU," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235079, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    14. Schreiber, Andrew & Evans, David & Marten, Alex & Wolverton, Ann & Davis, Wade, 2025. "Evaluating economy-wide impacts of complex regulations: A hybrid linking approach for detailed sector and CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Haddad, Salwa & Escobar, Neus & Bruckner, Martin & Britz, Wolfgang, "undated". "Promoting extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change," Discussion Papers 324710, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    16. Martin Henseler & Ruth Delzeit & Marcel Adenäuer & Sarah Baum & Peter Kreins, 2021. "Correction to: Nitrogen Tax and Set‑Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 625-625, July.
    17. Kalt, Gerald & Mayer, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Kaufmann, Lisa & Lauk, Christian & Matej, Sarah & Röös, Elin & Theurl, Michaela C. & Erb, Karl-Heinz, 2021. "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    18. Schreiber, Andrew & Evans, David A. & Marten, Alex & Wolverton, Ann & Davis, Wade, 2023. "Evaluating Economy-wide Effects of Power Sector Regulations Using the SAGE Model," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 348914, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    19. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    20. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2017. "Integrated Assessment Models of the Food, Energy, and Water Nexus: A Review and an Outline of Research Needs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 143-163, October.

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