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Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025

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  • Piet, Laurent
  • Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F.

Abstract

For at least the last sixty years, the number of French farms has been decreasing and their size increasing. Using the non-salaried contributing farmers’ database (COTNS) of the ‘Mutualité Sociale Agricole’, the French authority for farmers’ healthcare and social security, the processes underlying these trends are studied over the 2003-2014 period, enabling to project the population of French farms at the 2025 horizon. To do so, the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level and the “mover-stayer” model used to estimate entry, exit and size change transition probabilities are first presented. Projections show that, if the observed trends hold for the next decade, the number of French farms could drop to 328,000 in 2025, meaning a 22% decrease with respect to 2014 figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Piet, Laurent & Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F., 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers 250208, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:inrasl:250208
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.250208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    2. Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei & Ron C. Mittelhammer, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 303-329.
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    4. Laurent Piet & Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "How do agricultural policies influence farm size inequality? The example of France," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(1), pages 5-28, February.
    5. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
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    11. Laurent Piet & Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "How do agricultural policies influence farm size inequality? The example of France," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(1), pages 5-28, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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