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Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025

Author

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  • Laurent, Piet
  • Legrand D.F. Saint-Cyr

Abstract

[texte en français]For at least the last sixty years, the number of French farms has been decreasing and their size increasing. Using the non-salaried contributing farmers’ database (COTNS) of the ‘Mutualité Sociale Agricole’, the French authority for farmers’ healthcare and social security, the processes underlying these trends are studied over the 2003-2014 period, enabling to project the population of French farms at the 2025 horizon. To do so, the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level and the “mover-stayer” model used to estimate entry, exit and size change transition probabilities are first presented. Projections show that, if the observed trends hold for the next decade, the number of French farms could drop to 328,000 in 2025, meaning a 22% decrease with respect to 2014 figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent, Piet & Legrand D.F. Saint-Cyr, 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 16-11, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
  • Handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201611
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/250208/2/wp16-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
    2. repec:bla:jorssc:v:66:y:2017:i:4:p:777-795 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei & Ron C. Mittelhammer, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 303-329.
    4. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    5. Laurent Piet & Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "How do agricultural policies influence farm size inequality? The example of France," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 39(1), pages 5-28, February.
    6. Shorrocks, A F, 1976. "Income Mobility and the Markov Assumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 566-578, September.
    7. Jayasri Dutta & J. A. Sefton & M. R. WEALE, 2001. "Income distribution and income dynamics in the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 599-617.
    8. Lydia Zepeda, 1995. "Asymmetry and Nonstationarity in the Farm Size Distribution of Wisconsin Milk Producers: An Aggregate Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(4), pages 837-852.
    9. Jean-Pierre Butault & Nathalie Delame, 2005. "Concentration de la production agricole et croissance des exploitations," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 390(1), pages 47-64.
    10. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    11. Laurent Piet & Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "How do agricultural policies influence farm size inequality? The example of France," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 39(1), pages 5-28, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    farms; structural change; mover-stayer model; MSA; France;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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