SNAP Recipients' Food Shopping Behavior under Unexpected Benefit Disbursement

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a cornerstone of the U.S. social safety net, yet little is known about how recipients respond to unexpected disbursement shocks. We examine the behavioral effects of the early issuance of the February 2019 SNAP benefits in January, prompted by the 2018–2019 federal government shutdown. Using Nielsen IQ consumer panel data, we assess impacts on food expenditure, diet quality, food prices, and the SNAP benefit cycle. At the federal level, we leverage the exogenous timing shift, while at the state level, we apply a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effectiveness of the adjustment made by some states in March–April disbursements. Results reveal an 8% decrease in February 2019 food expenditure, indicating a violation of the permanent income hypothesis. The effect is driven by states that issue benefits in the first week of the calendar month and states with low SNAP participation rates. Households paid lower food prices in the third week of February, followed by a drop in diet quality in the fourth week. Early disbursement also attenuates the typical SNAP benefit cycle. Our findings underscore the importance of disbursement timing in safeguarding food security during periods of policy disruption.