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Jointly-Determined Livestock Disease Dynamics and Decentralized Economic Behavior

  • Gramig, Benjamin M.
  • Horan, Richard D.

We develop a dynamic model of livestock disease and decentralized economic behavior as a jointly-determined system. By accounting for feedbacks between behavioral choices and disease outcomes we capture the endogenous nature of infection risks. We consider government mandated testing of livestock herds and how private biosecurity incentives are affected by the structure of disease eradication polices. How well disease control policies are targeted affects their effectiveness and may result in farmers substituting government testing and disease surveillance for private biosecurity. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that failing to account for feedbacks between disease and economic dynamics may underestimate the level of infection. Not accounting for behavioral responses to infection risks may overestimate the effectiveness of government disease control policies.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49260
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49260.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49260
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  1. Hennessy, David A. & Roosen, Jutta & Jensen, Helen H., 2004. "Infectious Disease, Productivity, and Scale in Open and Closed Animal Production Systems," Staff General Research Papers 11996, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. David A. Hennessy, 2005. "Behavioral Incentives, Equilibrium Endemic Disease, and Health Management Policy for Farmed Animals," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp418, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Bicknell, Kathryn & Wilen, James E. & Howitt, Richard E., 1999. "Public policy and private incentives for livestock disease control," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(4), December.
  4. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
  5. David A. Hennessy, 2005. "Biosecurity and Infectious Animal Disease," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp413, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  6. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  7. Richard Bennett & Jos IJpelaar, 2005. "Updated Estimates of the Costs Associated with Thirty Four Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain: A Note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 135-144.
  8. Shogren, Jason F. & Crocker, Thomas D., 1999. "Risk and Its Consequences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 44-51, January.
  9. Mahul, Olivier & Gohin, Alexandre, 1999. "Irreversible Decision Making in Contagious Animal Disease Control under Uncertainty: An Illustration Using FMD in Brittany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 39-58, March.
  10. Richard Bennett, 2003. "The 'Direct Costs'of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 55-71.
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