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Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behaviour

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  • Benjamin M. Gramig
  • Richard D. Horan

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of livestock disease and decentralized economic behavior as a jointly-determined system. By accounting for feedbacks between behavioral choices and disease outcomes we capture the endogenous nature of infection risks. We consider government mandated testing of livestock herds and how private biosecurity incentives are affected by the structure of disease eradication polices. How well disease control policies are targeted affects their effectiveness and may result in farmers substituting government testing and disease surveillance for private biosecurity. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that failing to account for feedbacks between disease and economic dynamics may underestimate the level of infection. Not accounting for behavioral responses to infection risks may overestimate the effectiveness of government disease control policies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Gramig & Richard D. Horan, 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behaviour," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 393-410, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:55:y:2011:i:3:p:393-410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mahul, Olivier & Gohin, Alexandre, 1999. "Irreversible Decision Making in Contagious Animal Disease Control under Uncertainty: An Illustration Using FMD in Brittany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 39-58, March.
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    5. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
    6. Richard Bennett & Jos IJpelaar, 2005. "Updated Estimates of the Costs Associated with Thirty Four Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain: A Note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 135-144.
    7. Richard Bennett, 2003. "The 'Direct Costs'of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 55-71.
    8. Benjamin M. Gramig & Richard D. Horan & Christopher A. Wolf, 2008. "Livestock Disease Indemnity Design When Moral Hazard Is Followed by Adverse Selection," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(3), pages 627-641.
    9. Bicknell, Kathryn & Wilen, James E. & Howitt, Richard E., 1999. "Public policy and private incentives for livestock disease control," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(4), December.
    10. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    11. David A. Hennessy, 2005. "Biosecurity and Infectious Animal Disease," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp413, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bate, Andrew M. & Jones, Glyn & Kleczkowski, Adam & MacLeod, Alan & Naylor, Rebecca & Timmis, Jon & Touza, Julia & White, Piran C.L., 2016. "Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 334(C), pages 27-43.
    2. Leister, Amanda M. & Lee, John G. & Paarlberg, Philip L., 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149946, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Eli Fenichel & Timothy Richards & David Shanafelt, 2014. "The Control of Invasive Species on Private Property with Neighbor-to-Neighbor Spillovers," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(2), pages 231-255, October.
    4. Kobayashi, Mimako & Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "Strategic Incentives in Biosecurity Actions: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), August.

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