IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v43y2025i4p548-577.html

Dynamic default‐risk spillover of global energy firms: Evidence from five subsectors

Author

Listed:
  • Zaheer Anwer
  • Noureddine Benlagha
  • Nur Ain Shahrier
  • Amer Almajali

Abstract

We examine the asymmetric default‐risk spillovers of leading global energy firms across five key sectors, including integrated oil and gas, oil and gas refining and marketing, electric utilities, gas utilities, and coal, covering the period from April 2008 to June 2021. As earlier research does not utilize high‐frequency DTD data, it does not document the temporal variations in connectedness and risk transmission across different energy sectors. To address this gap, we utilize a unique dataset of daily DTD values, which enables us to uncover dynamic and evolving spillover patterns that were previously undetectable. We employ time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for our analysis. Our results reveal significant sectoral differences in risk transmission, with the coal sector showing the highest total connectedness due to shared vulnerabilities, and the gas sector exhibiting the lowest connectedness, indicating greater resilience to systemic shocks. Additionally, we identify net transmitters and receivers of global shocks, providing crucial insights into the directional dissemination of risks. Consequently, we contribute to the understanding of systemic risk and contagion dynamics within the energy sector, an area that has been relatively underexplored in financial stability research. These findings offer valuable implications for investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaheer Anwer & Noureddine Benlagha & Nur Ain Shahrier & Amer Almajali, 2025. "Dynamic default‐risk spillover of global energy firms: Evidence from five subsectors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 548-577, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:43:y:2025:i:4:p:548-577
    DOI: 10.1002/rfe.70013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/rfe.70013
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/rfe.70013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Ouyang, Ruolan & Chen, Xiang & Fang, Yi & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Systemic risk of commodity markets: A dynamic factor copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Goodell, John W. & Corbet, Shaen, 2023. "Commodity market exposure to energy-firm distress: Evidence from the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    6. Chen, Bin & Zhu, Xingyi, 2025. "Reaction of Chinese housing prices to oil prices and monetary policy shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Mensi, Walid & Yousaf, Imran & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between gold, BRENT oil and EU subsector markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    9. David Gabauer, 2020. "Volatility impulse response analysis for DCC‐GARCH models: The role of volatility transmission mechanisms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 788-796, August.
    10. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    11. Hille, Erik & Angerpointner, Cian, 2025. "Did geopolitical risks in supplier countries of fossil fuels lead to reduced domestic energy consumption? Evidence from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    13. Chen, Lin & Wen, Fenghua & Li, Wanyang & Yin, Hua & Zhao, Lili, 2022. "Extreme risk spillover of the oil, exchange rate to Chinese stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    14. Cong, Rong-Gang & Shen, Shaochuan, 2013. "Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 112211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhuang, Chengkai & Wang, Tingting & Zhang, Xuan, 2022. "Network analysis of risk transmission among energy futures: An industrial chain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    17. Jinapor, John Abdulai & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & Graham, Michael, 2025. "Energy consumption and inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does foreign direct investment make a difference?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    18. Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Sadorsky, Perry & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bouri, Elie & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Regime specific spillovers across US sectors and the role of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. Nahiyan Faisal Azad & Apostolos Serletis, 2024. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Consumer Sentiment in Advanced Economies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(6), pages 159-175, November.
    20. Siddique, Md. Abubakar & Nobanee, Haitham & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hossain, Md. Naiem & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    22. Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & López, Raquel & Jareño, Francisco, 2018. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    23. Bo Zhu & Renda Lin & Yuanyue Deng & Pingshe Chen & Julien Chevallier, 2021. "Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers between energy and agriculture under the financial and COVID-19 crises," Post-Print halshs-04250285, HAL.
    24. Hassan, M. Kabir & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Halim, Zairihan Abdul & Maroney, Neal & Rashid, Md. Mamunur, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic spillover of cryptocurrency environmental attention across the commodities, green bonds, and environment-related stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    25. Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Călin & Cristina Georgiana Zeldea & Iulia Lupu, 2021. "Systemic Risk Spillovers in the European Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, October.
    26. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    27. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Segovia, Juan E.Trinidad & Bhatti, M.Ishaq & Kabir, Asif, 2023. "Corporate vulnerability in the US and China during COVID-19: A machine learning approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    28. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    29. Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Systemic risk and financial contagion across top global energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    30. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
    32. Rabeh Khalfaoui & Sami Ben Jabeur & Buhari Dogan, 2022. "The spillover effects and connectedness among green commodities, Bitcoins, and US stock markets: Evidence from the quantile VAR network," Post-Print hal-03797573, HAL.
    33. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Reprint of: On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(S), pages 70-90.
    34. Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Deng, Yuanyue & Chen, Pingshe & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers between energy and agriculture under the financial and COVID-19 crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    35. Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer MÃ¥nsson, 2024. "Revisiting the Nexus Between Oil Prices and Economic Activity for Asian Economies Using MIDAS," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(4), pages 109-134, July.
    36. Chauhan, Anushka & Thangavel, Mohanasundari, 2025. "Assessing the impact of the Perform, Achieve, and Trade scheme on energy efficiency in India's iron and steel sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    37. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    38. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    39. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    40. Md Bokhtiar Hasan & Md Naiem Hossain & Hosneara Khatun & Gazi Salah Uddin & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Shu Tian, 2025. "Using smart transportation assets to hedge fossil energy markets: Evidence from quantile-based VAR approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(5), pages 1-27, May.
    41. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    42. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Richard Adjei Dwumfour & Salma Mefteh-Wali, 2022. "Connectedness and directional spillovers in energy sectors: international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(22), pages 2554-2569, May.
    43. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    44. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    45. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    46. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Spillovers between natural gas, gasoline, oil, and stock markets: Evidence from MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    47. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    48. Chen, Rongda & Wei, Bo & Jin, Chenglu & Liu, Jia, 2021. "Returns and volatilities of energy futures markets: Roles of speculative and hedging sentiments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    49. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    50. King Yoong Lim & Diego Morris, 2024. "Innovation and Spillover Effects of Energy Demand Shocks in Belt and Road Economies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(5), pages 167-189, September.
    51. Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    52. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zaheer Anwer & Ashraf Khan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2025. "Modelling systemic risk of energy and non-energy commodity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 1193-1227, February.
    2. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Braz, Tercio & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2024. "Mapping the landscape of energy markets research: A bibliometric analysis and predictive assessment using machine learning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Xu, Danyang & Hu, Yang & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Green bonds and traditional and emerging investments: Understanding connectedness during crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Benlagha, Noureddine & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2022. "Risk connectedness between energy and stock markets: Evidence from oil importing and exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    9. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2024. "Price spillovers and interdependences in China's agricultural commodity futures market: Evidence from the US-China trade dispute," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    10. Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Xiaodan & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan, 2023. "Does the connectedness among fossil energy returns matter for renewable energy stock returns? Fresh insights from the Cross-Quantilogram analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2021. "Exploring diversification opportunities across commodities and financial markets: Evidence from time-frequency based spillovers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Farid, Saqib & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Nepal, Rabindra, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the quantile connectedness between energy, metals and agriculture commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Billah, Mabruk & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Rabbani, Mustafa Raza & Shaik, Muneer, 2025. "Decoding investment strategies across agricultural commodities, Islamic equities, and Sukuk markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Alomari, Mohammed & Khoury, Rim El & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness between green energy and stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    17. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Wang, Zi-Xin & Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying, 2023. "Network connectedness between China's crude oil futures and sector stock indices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:43:y:2025:i:4:p:548-577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.