IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v22y2001i7p345-354.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The option to change the use of a property when future property values and construction costs are uncertain

Author

Listed:
  • Åke Gunnelin

    (Section of Building and Real Estate Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper models the decision to change the use of a property when its value in the current use and the new use, as well as construction costs, are uncertain. In the case of development of vacant land, when cash flows and construction costs are lognormally distributed, the development of the property optimally takes place when the ratio of benefit to cost of development reaches some fixed level. In the redevelopment case, the timing problem is found to be more complex, as the cost of exercising the conversion option consists of two parts, the construction costs and the surrendered value of the property in the current use, which may evolve differently over time. In this case, optimal redevelopment will take place for different benefit-cost ratios, depending on the relative sizes of the property values in the different uses and the construction costs. Also, for a given current benefit-cost ratio, the option value will vary significantly, depending on the relative size of the state variables. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Åke Gunnelin, 2001. "The option to change the use of a property when future property values and construction costs are uncertain," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 345-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:22:y:2001:i:7:p:345-354
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.1024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/mde.1024
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.1024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul D. Childs & Timothy J. Riddiough & Alexander J. Triantis, 1996. "Mixed Uses and the Redevelopment Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 317-339, September.
    2. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. Jason Winfree & Jill McCluskey & Ron Mittelhammer, 2006. "Buyer-Type Effects in Conservation and Preservation Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 167-179, September.
    3. Huimin Yao & Frederik Pretorius, 2014. "Demand Uncertainty, Development Timing and Leasehold Land Valuation: Empirical Testing of Real Options in Residential Real Estate Development," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 829-868, December.
    4. Bonde, Magnus & Song, Han-Suck, 2016. "“Green” refurbishments under uncertainty," Working Paper Series 15/11, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    5. Bun Lee & Eui-Chul Chung & Yong Kim, 2004. "Dwelling Age, Redevelopment, and Housing Prices: The Case of Apartment Complexes in Seoul," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 55-80, October.
    6. Winfree, Jason A. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Mittelhammer, Ronald C., 2002. "An Option Value Approach To Valuing Preservation Properties," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36619, Western Agricultural Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    2. Jyh-Bang Jou & Tan Lee, 2008. "Neutral Property Taxation Under Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 211-231, October.
    3. Lee, Tan & Jou, Jyh-Bang, 2007. "The regulation of optimal development density," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 21-36, March.
    4. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    5. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    7. Agliardi, Elettra & Koussis, Nicos, 2013. "Optimal capital structure and the impact of time-to-build," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 124-130.
    8. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
    9. Aïd, René & Federico, Salvatore & Pham, Huyên & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2015. "Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 240-256.
    10. Schachter, Jonathan A. & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Moriarty, John & Shaw, Rita, 2016. "Flexible investment under uncertainty in smart distribution networks with demand side response: Assessment framework and practical implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 439-449.
    11. Sarkar, Sudipto & Zhang, Chuanqian, 2013. "Implementation lag and the investment decision," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 136-140.
    12. Suh, Hyunduk & Yang, Jin Young, 2021. "Global uncertainty and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty: Different implications for firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    14. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Uncertainty, instability, and irreversible investment : theory, evidence, and lessons for Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1722, The World Bank.
    15. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Yishay D. Maoz, 2005. "Lags, Convexity and the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," General Economics and Teaching 0510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Madlener, Reinhard & Kumbaroglu, Gurkan & Ediger, Volkan S., 2005. "Modeling technology adoption as an irreversible investment under uncertainty: the case of the Turkish electricity supply industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 139-163, January.
    19. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.
    20. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:22:y:2001:i:7:p:345-354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.