IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0510001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lags, Convexity and the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship

Author

Listed:
  • Yishay D. Maoz

Abstract

The effect that investment lags has on the uncertainty-investment relationship is studied by modifying the Bar-Ilan and Strange (1996) model in a manner that enables analytical solution. It turns out that: (i) If the time lag is sufficiently small, uncertainty affects investment negatively; (ii) A sufficiently large time lag engenders an inverse u-shape relationship between the degree of uncertainty and the profit level that triggers investment; (iii) When such an inverse u- shape exists, the higher is the length of the time lag (or the degree of profit convexity) the wider is the range of a positive uncertainty- investment relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Yishay D. Maoz, 2005. "Lags, Convexity and the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," General Economics and Teaching 0510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0510001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0510/0510001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    3. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    4. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caruso, Massimo, 2001. "Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 189-217, June.
    2. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    3. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    4. Thu Phuong Pham & Anh Tuan Bui, 2007. "The time to shut down," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-14.
    5. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    6. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    7. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    8. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    9. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    10. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Sulem, Agnes & Zanello, Alessandro, 2002. "Time-to-build and capacity choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-98, January.
    11. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    12. Gkochari, Christiana C., 2015. "Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 102-109.
    13. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    14. Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    15. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    16. Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
    17. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    18. Ghosal, Vivek & Ye, Yang, 2019. "The impact of uncertainty on the number of businesses," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    19. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Uncertainty; Time to build;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0510001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.