IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jpamgt/v38y2019i2p394-425.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics: Evidence from New York SNAP Administrative Records

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Scherpf
  • Benjamin Cerf

Abstract

This study estimates the effect of local labor demand on the likelihood that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries are able to transition out of the program. Our data include SNAP administrative records from New York (2007 to 2012), linked at the person‐level to the 2010 Census, and linked at the county‐month‐level to industry‐specific labor market conditions. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time spent on SNAP, but there is substantial heterogeneity in estimated effects across local industries. Using Bartik‐style instruments to isolate the effect of labor demand and controlling for the changing composition of entrants and program rules brought on by the Great Recession, we find that fluctuations in labor demand in industries with high shares of SNAP participants—especially food service and retail—change the likelihood of exiting the program. Notably, estimated industry effects vary across race and parental status, with black participants being most sensitive to changes in local labor market conditions and mothers benefiting less from growth in local labor demand than fathers and non‐parents. We confirm that our results are not driven by endogenous inter‐county mobility or New York City labor markets and are robust to multiple specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Scherpf & Benjamin Cerf, 2019. "Local Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics: Evidence from New York SNAP Administrative Records," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 394-425, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:38:y:2019:i:2:p:394-425
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22113
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/pam.22113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Catherine G. Massey, 2017. "Playing with matches: An assessment of accuracy in linked historical data," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 129-143, July.
    3. James P. Ziliak & Craig Gundersen & David N. Figlio, 2003. "Food Stamp Caseloads over the Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(4), pages 903-919, April.
    4. Brittany Bond & J. David Brown & Adela Luque & Amy O’Hara, 2014. "The Nature of the Bias When Studying Only Linkable Person Records: Evidence from the American Community Survey," CARRA Working Papers 2014-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Christopher R. Bollinger & Martin H. David, 2005. "I didn't tell, and I won't tell: dynamic response error in the SIPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 563-569, May.
    6. Atasoy, Sibel & Mills, Bradford F. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2010. "The Dynamics of Food Stamp Program Participation: A Lagged Dependent Variable Approach," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60963, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Jacob Alex Klerman & Caroline Danielson, 2011. "The transformation of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 863-888, September.
    8. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s (Summary)," Mathematica Policy Research Reports d4184be34db1456f98e3099b2, Mathematica Policy Research.
    9. repec:mpr:mprres:5674 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes & Elira Kuka, 2017. "Child Poverty, the Great Recession, and the Social Safety Net in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 358-389, March.
    11. Evelyn Blumenberg & Paul Ong, 1998. "Job accessibility and welfare usage: Evidence from Los Angeles," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 639-657.
    12. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes, 2015. "Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 154-160, May.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    14. Maria J. Hanratty, 2006. "Has the Food Stamp program become more accessible? Impacts of recent changes in reporting requirements and asset eligibility limits," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 603-621.
    15. James Mabli & James C. Ohls, 2012. "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Dynamics and Employment Transitions: The Role of Employment Instability," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 187-213.
    16. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
    17. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok & James X. Sullivan, 2015. "Household Surveys in Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 199-226, Fall.
    18. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    19. Philip Gleason & Peter Schochet & Robert Moffitt, 1998. "The Dynamics of Food Stamp Program Participation in the Early 1990s," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ab95304cd2204323a950b50dd, Mathematica Policy Research.
    20. James P. Ziliak & Craig Gundersen & David N. Figlio, 2003. "Food Stamp Caseloads over the Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 903-919, April.
    21. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    22. repec:mpr:mprres:1855 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    24. Maarten L. Buis, 2010. "Stata tip 87: Interpretation of interactions in nonlinear models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 10(2), pages 305-308, June.
    25. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    26. James P. Ziliak & Craig Gundersen & David N. Figlio, 2003. "Food Stamp Caseloads over the Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(4), pages 903-919, April.
    27. Mabli, James & Martin, Emily Sama & Castner, Laura, 2009. "Effects of Economic Conditions and Program Policy on State Food Stamp Program Caseloads, 2000 to 2006," Contractor and Cooperator Reports 292076, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    28. Meyer, Bruce D. & Goerge, Robert M., 2011. "Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation," Contractor and Cooperator Reports 312394, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    29. Nicholas J. Klein & Michael J. Smart, 2017. "Car today, gone tomorrow: The ephemeral car in low-income, immigrant and minority families," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 495-510, May.
    30. James Mabli & James C. Ohls, 2012. "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Dynamics and Employment Transitions: The Role of Employment Instability," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 187-213.
    31. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s," Mathematica Policy Research Reports b6244526c98341d6bba91f07e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    32. repec:mpr:mprres:7118 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner, 2015. "How do Individual Sectors Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? A Structural Dynamic Factor Approach Applied to Swiss Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(III), pages 167-225, September.
    34. repec:mpr:mprres:6321 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    36. repec:mpr:mprres:4617 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. David C. Ribar, 2005. "Transitions from Welfare and the Employment Prospects of Low‐Skill Workers," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 514-533, January.
    38. Scott Cody & Laura Castner & James Mabli & Julie Sykes, "undated". "Dynamics of Food Stamp Program Participation, 2001-2003," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 580f5d8bb98c472e9cde860fe, Mathematica Policy Research.
    39. Robert Haveman & Rebecca Blank & Robert Moffitt & Timothy Smeeding & Geoffrey Wallace, 2015. "The War On Poverty: Measurement, Trends, And Policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 593-638, June.
    40. David N. Figlio & Craig Gundersen & James P. Ziliak, 2000. "The Effects of the Macroeconomy and Welfare Reform on Food Stamp Caseloads," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 635-641.
    41. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    42. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    43. repec:mpr:mprres:4670 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Peter Ganong & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2018. "The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 153-176, November.
    45. Marianne P. Bitler & Lynn A. Karoly, 2015. "Intended And Unintended Effects Of The War On Poverty: What Research Tells Us And Implications For Policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 639-696, June.
    46. Ratcliffe, Caroline & McKernan, Signe-Mary & Finegold, Kenneth, 2008. "Effect of State Food Stamp and TANF Policies on Food Stamp Program Participation," Contractor and Cooperator Reports 292011, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    47. Cody, Scott & Gleason, Phil & Schechter, Bruce & Satake, Miki & Sykes, Julie, 2005. "Food Stamp Program Entry and Exit: An Analysis of Participation Trends in the 1990s," Contractor and Cooperator Reports 291980, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    48. repec:mpr:mprres:7137 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. repec:mpr:mprres:5676 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Hanson, Kenneth & Oliveira, Victor, 2012. "How Economic Conditions Affect Participation in USDA Nutrition Assistance Programs," Economic Information Bulletin 134682, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    51. Paul M. Ong, 2002. "Car ownership and welfare-to-work," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 239-252.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sumedha Gupta & Laura Montenovo & Thuy Nguyen & Felipe Lozano‐Rojas & Ian Schmutte & Kosali Simon & Bruce A. Weinberg & Coady Wing, 2023. "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 166-193, January.
    2. Justine Hastings & Ryan Kessler & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "The Effect of SNAP on the Composition of Purchased Foods: Evidence and Implications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-315, August.
    3. Leanne Giordono & David W. Rothwell & Stephanie Grutzmacher & Mark Edwards, 2022. "Understanding SNAP use patterns among older adults," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 609-634, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stacy Dickert‐Conlin & Katie Fitzpatrick & Brian Stacy & Laura Tiehen, 2021. "The Downs and Ups of the SNAP Caseload: What Matters?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1026-1050, September.
    2. Erik Scherpf & Benjamin Cerf, 2016. "Local Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics," CARRA Working Papers 2016-10, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Scherpf, Erik, 2013. "The Path to SNAP: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Dynamics Among Young Adults," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150349, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Peter Ganong & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2018. "The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 153-176, November.
    5. Erik Hembre, 2023. "Examining SNAP and TANF caseload trends, responsiveness, and policies during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 262-281, April.
    6. D. Ribar & Christopher A. Swann, 2014. "If at first you don't succeed: applying for and staying on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(27), pages 3339-3350, September.
    7. David Neumark & Brian Asquith & Brittany Bass, 2020. "Longer‐Run Effects Of Anti‐Poverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 409-434, July.
    8. Mayock, Tom & Tzioumis, Konstantinos, 2021. "New construction and mortgage default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Marcella Alsan & Crystal S. Yang, 2024. "Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1427-1441, November.
    10. Scherpf, Erik & Weber, Bruce & Grobe, Deana & Edwards, Mark, 2018. "Participation in USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): Effect of Local Labor Market Conditions in Oregon," Economic Research Report 277565, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Waring, Melody K. & Meyer, Daniel R., 2020. "Welfare, work, and single mothers: The Great Recession and income packaging strategies," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Melvin, Shamar & Smith, Travis A., 2022. "From paper to plastic: How the transition to EBT affected SNAP enrollment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Berning, Joshua P. & Bonanno, Alessandro & Bayham, Jude & Zhou, Siwen, 2021. "The impact of business cycles on immigrant household food security," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314001, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Dean Fantazzini, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US Using Online Search Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-27, November.
    15. Michael Pollmann, 2020. "Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments," Papers 2011.00373, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    16. repec:osf:osfxxx:q559t_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bruch, Sarah K. & van der Naald, Joseph & Gornick, Janet C., 2022. "Poverty Reduction through Federal and State Policy Mechanisms: Variation Over Time and Across the U.S. States," SocArXiv jz5xp, Center for Open Science.
    18. Joan Monras, 2020. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3017-3089.
    19. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    20. Bastian, Jacob E. & Black, Dan A., 2024. "Relaxing financial constraints with tax credits and migrating out of rural and distressed America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    21. Tiehen, Laura & Jolliffe, Dean & Gundersen, Craig, 2012. "Alleviating Poverty in the United States: The Critical Role of SNAP Benefits," Economic Research Report 262233, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:38:y:2019:i:2:p:394-425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/34787/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.