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Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union

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  • PEI KUANG
  • KAUSHIK MITRA

Abstract

The paper develops a business cycle model with policymakers' learning about potential output to analyze the European recession following the Global Financial Crisis. The initial recession led to overpessimism about potential output and cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB), triggering fiscal austerity. The austerity caused further recession, which reinforced potential output and CAB pessimism, requiring continued austerity. The mutual reinforcement between pessimism and austerity contributed to the prolonged recession. The model replicates new findings regarding revisions to potential output estimates and the relationship between fiscal consolidation and policymakers' beliefs. Without policymakers' overpessimism, Eurozone GDP would have been 4.5% higher in 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2025. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(7), pages 1871-1905, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:7:p:1871-1905
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13233
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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