IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v41y2021i7p1092-1123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjay Sehgal
  • Neharika Sobti
  • Florent Diesting

Abstract

Gold exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) have amassed massive inflows from institutional investors globally. We examine intraday price discovery and volatility connectedness among three gold instruments—spot, futures, and ETF—across mature and emerging gold markets in domestic and international settings from 2010 to 2018. Using the network approach, we find that gold futures are a global leader in price discovery and volatility spillover. However, during 2016–2018, physical‐gold‐backed ETF and spot challenge the futures' leadership in New York and Shanghai. Intraday variation in price discovery leadership is due to liquidity, hedging effectiveness, price jumps, investor attention, and macroeconomic states.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:7:p:1092-1123
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22208
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22208?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2016. "Googling gold and mining bad news," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-311.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adewuyi, Adeolu, 2020. "Google trends and the predictability of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2010. "News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1628-1636, July.
    6. Grammig, Joachim & Melvin, Michael & Schlag, Christian, 2005. "Internationally cross-listed stock prices during overlapping trading hours: price discovery and exchange rate effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-164, January.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    8. Brownlees, C.T. & Gallo, G.M., 2006. "Financial econometric analysis at ultra-high frequency: Data handling concerns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2232-2245, December.
    9. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    10. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    11. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz & Shane E. Underwood, 2007. "Price discovery in the treasury futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(11), pages 1021-1051, November.
    12. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    13. Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2014. "Investor attention, index performance, and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-35.
    14. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    15. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    16. Brian M. Lucey & Charles Larkin & Fergal O'Connor, 2014. "Gold markets around the world - who spills over what, to whom, when?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 887-892, September.
    17. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    18. Muzhao Jin & Youwei Li & Jianxin Wang & Yung Chiang Yang, 2018. "Price discovery in the Chinese gold market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1262-1281, October.
    19. Liyan Han & Ziying Li & Libo Yin, 2017. "The effects of investor attention on commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(10), pages 1031-1049, October.
    20. Damien Wallace & Petko S. Kalev & Guanhua Lian, 2019. "The evolution of price discovery in us equity and derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1122-1136, September.
    21. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    22. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    23. Brian M. Lucey & Charles Larkin & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2013. "London or New York: where and when does the gold price originate?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 813-817, May.
    24. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    25. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    26. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    27. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha, 2009. "A new information share measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 377-395, April.
    28. Ekkehart Boehmer & Eric K. Kelley, 2009. "Institutional Investors and the Informational Efficiency of Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3563-3594, September.
    29. Marc J. M. Bohmann & David Michayluk & Vinay Patel, 2019. "Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1107-1121, September.
    30. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, August.
    31. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & David Roubaud, 2018. "Comovements of gold futures markets and the spot market," Post-Print hal-02091704, HAL.
    32. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2016. "Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-77.
    33. Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2005. "Cross-market linkages between U.S. and Japanese precious metals futures trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    34. Stoyu Ivanov, 2013. "The influence of ETFs on the price discovery of gold, silver and oil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 453-462, July.
    35. Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2013. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 365-383, August.
    36. Martin Hauptfleisch & Tālis J. Putniņš & Brian Lucey, 2016. "Who Sets the Price of Gold? London or New York," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 564-586, June.
    37. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Comovements of gold futures markets and the spot market: A wavelet analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 19-24.
    38. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    39. Caihong Xu & Dong Zhang, 2019. "Market openness and market quality in gold markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 384-401, March.
    40. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    41. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2017. "Quantile causality between gold commodity and gold stock prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 56-63.
    42. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    43. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    44. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    45. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
    46. Frijns, Bart & Indriawan, Ivan & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2015. "Macroeconomic news announcements and price discovery: Evidence from Canadian–U.S. cross-listed firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 35-48.
    47. Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen & Fred Espen Benth & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2010. "Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes," CREATES Research Papers 2010-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    48. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice, 2016. "Gold and silver manipulation: What can be empirically verified?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 168-176.
    49. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1993. "Assessing the Quality of a Security Market: A New Approach to Transaction-Cost Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 191-212.
    50. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    51. Hasan F. Baklaci & Ömür Süer & Tezer Yelkenci, 2016. "Volatility Linkages Among Gold Futures in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 1-9, January.
    52. Chai, Edwina F.L. & Lee, Adrian D. & Wang, Jianxin, 2015. "Global information distribution in the gold OTC markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 206-217.
    53. Dhillon, Upinder S. & Lasser, Dennis J. & Watanabe, Taiji, 1997. "Volatility, information, and double versus walrasian auction pricing in US and Japanese futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1045-1061, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    5. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018.
    6. Chen, Wei-Peng & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2016. "Price discovery in the S&P 500 index derivatives markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 438-452.
    7. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019.
    8. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2016. "Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-77.
    9. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    10. Su, Fei & Zhang, Jingjing, 2018. "Global price discovery in the Australian dollar market and its determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-55.
    11. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    12. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2022. "Informativeness of trades around macroeconomic announcements in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    14. Madhusudan Karmakar & Sarveshwar Inani, 2019. "Information share and its predictability in the Indian stock market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1322-1343, October.
    15. Muzhao Jin & Youwei Li & Jianxin Wang & Yung Chiang Yang, 2018. "Price discovery in the Chinese gold market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1262-1281, October.
    16. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Wang, Xinya & Lucey, Brian & Huang, Shupei, 2022. "Can gold hedge against oil price movements: Evidence from GARCH-EVT wavelet modeling," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    18. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    20. Shrestha, Keshab & Philip, Sheena & Peranginangin, Yessy, 2020. "Contributions of Crude Oil Exchange Traded Funds in Price Discovery Process," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 23(2), pages 393-407, November.
    21. Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Ahmad, Nisar & Ahmed, Sheraz, 2023. "Applications of high-frequency data in finance: A bibliometric literature review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    22. Jing Nie, 2019. "High‐Frequency Price Discovery and Price Efficiency on Interest Rate Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1394-1434, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:7:p:1092-1123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.