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Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?

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  • Marc J. M. Bohmann
  • David Michayluk
  • Vinay Patel

Abstract

We investigate whether commodity futures or options markets play a more important role in the price discovery process in the six most actively traded markets: crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, corn, and soybeans. Using new information leadership techniques, we report new evidence and report that both markets make a meaningful contribution to price discovery in recent times; however, on average, options lead futures in reflecting new information for a majority of these commodities. We find that increased speculation, rather than hedging activity, in commodity derivatives is a key determinant of price discovery in the options markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc J. M. Bohmann & David Michayluk & Vinay Patel, 2019. "Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1107-1121, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:9:p:1107-1121
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22021
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tanushree Sharma & Puja Sharma & Simon Grima, 2024. "A Study of Market Efficiency and Volatility of Jeera Future Trading," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 796-809, December.
    3. Lado-Sestayo, Rubén & De Llano-Paz, Fernando & Vivel-Búa, Milagros & Martínez-Salgueiro, Andrea, 2023. "Commodity exposure in the eurozone: How EU energy security is conditioned by the Euro," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. Xingguo Luo & Yuting Lin & Xiaoli Yu & Feng He, 2021. "How trading in commodity futures option markets impacts commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1333-1347, August.
    5. Mathias Schneid Tessmann & Carlos Enrique Carrasco-Gutierrez & Alexandre Vasconcelos Lima, 2023. "Determinants of Corn and Soybean Futures Prices Traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange: An ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(1), pages 1-65, January.
    6. Yakup Söylemez, 2019. "Cryptocurrency Derivatives: The Case of Bitcoin," Contributions to Economics, in: Umit Hacioglu (ed.), Blockchain Economics and Financial Market Innovation, chapter 0, pages 515-530, Springer.
    7. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    8. Bo Yan & Mengru Liang & Yinxin Zhao, 2024. "Market sentiment and price dynamics in weak markets: A comprehensive empirical analysis of the soybean meal option market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 744-766, May.
    9. A.N. Vijayakumar, 2023. "Declining trade interest in Indian commodity derivatives: a survey-based study on cardamom futures contract," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 333-346.
    10. Sheunesu Zhou, 2021. "Analyzing the Relationship between Derivative Usage and Systemic Risk in South Africa," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 217-234.
    11. Marc Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2020. "Information Leakage in Energy Derivatives around News Announcements," Published Paper Series 2020-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Miffre, Joëlle & Schoen, Tilman & Scott, Ayesha, 2023. "Do spot market auction data help price discovery?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. Zhini Yang & Andrew Lepone, 2025. "Price Discovery in China's Crude Oil Derivatives Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(5), pages 473-493, May.
    14. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    15. Marc J. M. Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2022. "Informed options trading prior to FDA announcements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(7-8), pages 1211-1236, July.
    16. Da Dong & Qingfu Liu & Pingping Tao & Zhiliang Ying, 2021. "The pricing mechanism between ETF option and spot markets in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1286-1300, August.
    17. Zou, Mi & Han, Lin & Yang, Zhini, 2024. "Price discovery of the Chinese crude oil options and futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Joëlle Miffre & Tilman Schoen & Ayesha Scott, 2023. "Do spot market auction data help price discovery?," Post-Print hal-04121327, HAL.
    19. Hao, Jing & He, Feng & Liu-Chen, Baiao & Li, Zihe, 2021. "Price discovery and its determinants for the Chinese soybean options and futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    20. Wang Haoyu & Junpeng Di & Qing Han, 2023. "Adaptive hedging horizon and hedging performance estimation," Papers 2302.00251, arXiv.org.
    21. Edward Curran & Jack Hunt & Vito Mollica, 2020. "Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1793-1806, November.

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